Last tips

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This is match from the semifinals. I doubted that any of the players is thinking about the ATP Quito and both of them will be fully focused on this stage. Bagnis is good player indeed and he is clay court specialist. He beat A.Ghem, a player who I do not consider a good on clay. In the next round he faced A.Montanes. I must say that the Spaniard lost the match and not Bagnis won it. A tons of unforced errors from the backhand of Montanes, only 45% first serve in and 14 double faults. Still in those two matches Ghem won one out of a three break points and Montanes won two out of three. On the quarter finals the match against Haider-Maurer was rather bizarre. The Austrian won easily the first set 6-1, but eventually lost. Bagnis served just 59% with four aces and 8 double faults. Haider –Maurer even won more points than Bagnis in this match! That is the main reason to seek Asian handicap, but the safer Money line for this bet. Gimeno-Traver had rough 2014. He dropped out of the first 100 for first time since 2011. He lost points from the beginning of the year(in 2014 he played first round on the Australian open, first round in Doha and first round in Auckland). Moreover he had a points from the quarter final in Vina Del Mar last year, which he will try to defend in Quito next week. The 30 years old Spaniard is more experienced and successful than Bagnis and will play with great determination here. Off course we can say the same about Bagnis. Still Gimeno has not loss a set so far and he lost five games tops in the sixth sets so far. Moreover he won the only previous meeting against Bagnis on Mestre Challenger last year with 6-1;7-6(8). I think this bet deserve more than the usual 2 units in my opinion. The last and for me the most important reason here is that Gimeno – Traver is holding record 34/14 w/l on Challenger level against left handers and on ITF level the stats is 4-0. At the end I just remind that GImeno – Traver is more cold-blooded in the later stages on the tournaments and he is holding record 13-8 w/l(12 on clay and one on hard courts) on Challenger events final against 4-5 for Bagnis(all on clay). I think the maximum stake that can be used here is 3.5 units and I go for it. After all 2014 was the seventh year in a row in which Gimeno-Traver clinched at least one Challenger title.

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This is match from the quarter finals. Melzer is the little brother of Jurgen and he is lefty too. He has great serve and good forehand. He had very strong 2013 on Futures event and in 2014 we see him often on Challenger events. He had some success and reached three semifinals, but his weak spot is his mentality. Here he played two three sets matches and no matter of his win over P.Lorenzi I could not evaluated him as in form. Elias is crafty player on all surfaces and he is more aggressive player. He trashed A.Gonzalez and R.Carablles – Baena in straight sets and he has bigger experience on clay courts on higher level(ATP and Chalelnger). Elias is 16-5 w/l against lefties on Challenger level and 7-3 w/l on ITF events. I will go for win in straight sets, because I think the maximum odd should be 2.00 for this line and there is nice value here.

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I am little surprised from the represented odds and I think in the worst scenario Burgos should be evaluated around 2.00. Burgos is the higher ranked player and his career is in rise. He is near to his best ranking. Burgos has excellent footwork and he is solid from the base line. Same goes for GImeno – Traver with the difference that he is more aggressive and has stronger serve. Burgos can stay in the rallies with his nice backhand slice and this will give the chance for errors of Gimeno- Traver. I think we will see long and exhausting rallies in this match in which both players have chances 50/50. By this scenario I the choice is to back the higher odd.

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This match may be more expected than the eventual final, especially if Wawrinka wins. Djokovic is still without a loss of set and he is looking solid favorite here. I could not agree with that fact but I took in mind some other circumstances. The only and I think main advantage of Djokovic over Wawrinka is the lacks of ups and downs in Serbian’s game. In the same time Wawrinka wiped the floor with Nishikori, but still missed five match points in the third set tie break. Moreover he allowed come back of Garcia – Lopez on the quarter finals in the third set after the Spaniard was 2-4 sets down. Something more in the tie break of the fourth set Garcia-Lopez blew up five set points. This showed how shaky can be Stan. Still he can play like machine and hit winners from any side of the court and his serve can be hard to be broken, like in the first two sets against Nishikori. On tournaments other than Grand Slam Wawrinka is totally dominated, but in the last three meetings on Grand Slam the match ended in five sets. I think on such high odd it is clear value bet to see four sets at least.

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In this match from the second round we will see in action the veteran Albert Montanes. The Spaniard is very experienced player with excellent game on the base line and great variation in the game. His serve is not bad and he mixes his game with dropped shots and event visits the net. He has good passing shots too. The Spaniard made 13th years in a row in the first 100, but ended 2014 as world No108. Bagnis is already 25 years old and his top ranking is No98, which I think can be improved around 70-80, but no more. He is limited player, a typical pusher, who stays on the base line and waits for mistake of his opponents. It is true that he attacks the net too, but with moderate success. Both players will play in the next week ATP250 in Quito, but I doubted that any of them will not put all of their efforts here. Still Montanes is not fully reliable here and the odd is going up, but the Spaniard can trashed Bagnis with no more than 60% of his full capacity. I go for a small bet here.

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This is match from the first round of the Bucaramanga Challenger. Kubler pass the Australian open and all of the events so far. He specialized only to play on clay courts. He is base line player and pretty consist. He is tough nut to be cracked. His serve is not strong but he has a lot of variation and his kick serve is tricky to handle. In the only previous meeting (on clay of course) on 13th may 2014 Maurer won in close two sets 7-6(6) and 7-5. Haider-Maurer is clay court specialist too, but his strong first serve* and powerful forehand works for him on faster surfaces too. Other than the difference in the ranking (Kubler No141, his best is 136 and Haider – Maurer is No79, his best is 70) I have few reasons to back the Austrian. First of them is that Haider – Maurer played excellent on hard courts for his level, gaining good match practice. The second one is that this will be first competitive match for Kubler on singles this year overall(before this one he played on 23.11.2014) and he will need time to get in rhythm(he will play on doubles today, but the singles are totally different job). Third reason is that Kubler has no variation in his game – he will stay on the base line and will try only to keep the ball with enough depth, rarely going for a winner. In the same time Haider – Maurer uses the dropped shots very wisely and mixes up his game well enough. Next week the Austrian will play in one of the weakest ATP 250 events in Quito on clay again and I doubted he will underrate this event. In my opinion he will win couple of matches here at least so he get rhythm on the clay.

*most recent stats:
VS J.Isner (L Australian open 2nd round) VS L.Lokoli (W Australian open 1st round)
1st serves in 84/128 (66 %) 1st serves in 61/120 (51 %)
1st serve points won 63/84 (75 %) 1st serve points won 48/61 (79 %)
Average 1st serve speed 192 KMH

VS J.Vesely (W R16 Chennai) VS D.Goffin (L QF Chennai)
1st serves in 69% (67/97) 1st serve in 62%(39/62)
1st serve points won 73% (49/67) 1st serve points won 64% (25/39)

P.S.
The match is scheduled for tomorrow, but the start time is still to be determined, but it won’t be before 16:00 GMT+0

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I though a lot about this bet and eventually I decided to take it. Wawrinka is the defending champion and in some periods he was the same player that won the tournament last year. In the same time Stan had big ups and downs in his matches against Garcia-Lopez and M.Copil. Copil’s lacks of experience was the main reason Stan to win both tie breaks and the match in three sets 7-6;7-6;6-3. In the match against Garcia – Lopez everything was under the control of the Swiss and from nowhere after he was leading with 4-2 in the third set and lost it. Moreover in the fourth set tie break Garcia – Lopez was leading with 6-2, but failed to win it, because he wasn’t patient enough. In the same time we can say that all of the opponents of Nishikori were tricky – N.Almagro, I.Dodig, S.Johnson and D.Ferrer. He past all of the tests and more important he is physically strong. He edged Wawrinka on the US open and he will play with no fear. Wawrinka in the same time has a lot of points to defend and will be pushed to the wall. I think Nishikori deserved to be trusted.

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This is match from the quarter finals. The odd is going slightly down and I think it will adjust as it should be in the day of the match around 1.5. There was big drama about the odds against K.Anderson and they even dropped to 3.50 and now the case is the same with Berdych. The Czech is in excellent form as usual on the Australian open and this is his fifth quarter final in a row. The Czech is serving excellent and his strokes are very sharp from the back of the court. On the other hand he was total favorite against all players so far and now he is facing player who has won 18 matches in a row against him on all surfaces. Nadal is not looking reliable, but the Spaniard is a fighter and I doubted that he will give up no matter of the result. I expect very close match in the first two sets and it is likely Berdych to win the first set, but after that Nadal slowly but surely will not beat the Czech, but will break his mentality and will force errors. I think Nadal will prevail in this clash.

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This is match from the third round and I see nice value here. Errani beat two really poor players so far – G.Min and S.Soler-Espinosa, but she confirmed the down trend in her form. Errani has poor serve and always goes for high balls with a lot of top spin. Her good game near the net is the thing that holds her in her matches. Wickmayer is far from reliable and she had poor 2014 and continue to play modest this year so far. On the other hand the Belgian is 2/2 w/l, but managed to win a set in all matches. In the head to head balance the result is 3-2 for the Belgian and more important is that Wickmayer won a set at least in all five matches, so I think here Wickmayer will win a set at least too.

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I think enough is enough. Anderson is a player who is reliable only from his serve and when he is under pressure and experiences problems to hold his serve, he become nervous and mistakes a lot. Moreover his mentality is modest. He beat two modest contenders in the previous two rounds. Gasquet is not on optimal form, but he slowly but surely is gaining her back. Gasquet is 6-/1 w/l this year and he won four of the previous five matches against Anderson. This is great chances for Gasquet to gain points and Anderson has a points to defend from hi sfourth round here last year and he will be pushed to the wall against opponent, who knows how to handle him. I think Gasquet will take his chance and will win here.

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This match I think have the potential to become a three sets thriller. Bacsinszky definitely is in form and she has tremendous 2014, finishing with record 58/18 w/l. The Swiss is all around court player with solid serve and base lien strokes. She stared the year on a flyer and reached the final in Shenzhen. On the other hands she is playing here for the first time since 2011 and her best so far is 2 round. Tatishvili is a Georgian which is playing for the USA. She is very aggressive player with good serve and he is forcing her opponents always to make extra shot to win the point. This is going to be their first meeting and both of them are in form this year. Tatishvili won in straight sets 4 matches so far and beat tricky opponents, like K.Date, J.Konta and K.Piter. I think Bacsinszky can underrated Tatishvili and drop a set, so my call is Tatishvili to win a set at least.

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On first look somebody will accuse me that I go against the local favorite, but Stosur has never been feeling comfortable at home in Australia. No matter that she has won a Grand Clam event(US open) her best on the Australian open is R16. Usually the second or the third round is where she is eliminated. Stosur’s problem is the weak mentality and when she is under pressure she can be an error machine. Vandeweghe is pure hitter. In the head to head record the result is 1-1. The American is player who is 50/50 against almost anyone. She will hit the ball hard no matter of what. I think here we will see tight match and Vandeweghe to win a set at least.

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I simply must go against Pironkova. The Bulgarian managed to win against H.Watson, but the Brit I think abandoned the event after the title in Hobart. Pironkova reached the semifinals in Sydney, but she has never pass the second round here and more or less she is quite vulnerable against players, like Cibulkova, which are consist from the base line and make less amount of unforced errors. Cibulkova may look in modest shape, but she reached the final last year and won against Flipkens in the previous round after she lost the first set. Both players knows each other pretty well and they have played eight matches. In seven of them Cibulkova has won with the only win for Pironkova on grass. In fact in those seven wins only once Cibulkova has dropped a set against Pironkova. I think the odd worth the try.

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It will be real bad luck if see this Verdasco to win the match in straight sets. The Spaniard is crafty player on all surfaces. He is lefty with excellent serve and very powerful and accurate forehand. His problems is the weak mentality and he often goes for the winner no matter of the situation or does the ball is good enough for trying it. That leads him into big problems and he makes a lot of unforced errors. Ward is bizarre player, but the Brit is a hitter and he has good serve. Ward usually plays qualifications, but this time he is direct in the main scheme and I think this will allow him to play free of pressure. He will get his fat pay check and he can only win from this match. Both players are in questionable form and I think here we will see very close match and both players to win a set.

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I have almost no hesitation about this bet. Wang is very tricky opponent, who is used to go into the main scheme after winning the qualifications. He is typical Asian player, who is solid from the base line and will force a long rallies. His serve is not bad, but he is very depended from the amount of unforced errors. Isner is a player who is very dangerous, when his serve is on, but honestly he did not impress with anything so far this year and in format three out of five sets he is looking the man to bet against. Isner is capable to involve in five sets matches and I think here we can see another one. Still the odd for Wang to win two sets is the most valuable choice and I take one unit on it.

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This is match from the first round and I must say that I want to take even higher than those 2.5 units, but the odd is rather low.What can I say about F.Lopez. He lost all of his five matches so far this season and no matter that most of them were on Exhibition events the mental burden is way too big. Moreover Lopez is not reliable on hard court outdoors(if we exclude 2014 which he finished with 24/15 w/l, in the previous six he never won more than 15 matches on hard courts outdoors). Lopez is on his top ranking, but he is playing a lot worse. Kudla is typical hard court player and he is a hitter with good serve. He is nothing special and no matter that he is No123 in the world he can be competitive, when motivated. He is 4/2 w/l this year so far and I think he has what it takes to win a set here.

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This is the final match of the Casablanca Challenger. Ouahab made excellent run here and no matter that he made excellent wins over Rufin and Ungur, but still he have not played so many strong matches in arrow in a while. He is 31 years old and he will meet the younger and highly motivated Marti. This will be their first meeting. Marti did not lose a set so far and in all eight sets that he played, only once he lost more than three games in a set. He has excellent footwork and he is solid from the base line. The Spaniard is aggressive and very motivated to get back in the first 200. I think in spite of the home advantage Ouahab will not be a match for Marti and will lose.

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Here I go for Paddy as my first choice because Pinancle will void my bet if Riske retired. The American is in good form and near to her best. On the other hand Riske avoid elimination against out of form Jovanovski. Riske is strong from the base lien and can take the ball early, but her mentality is weak and she is quite vulnerable, when under pressure. Watson became the first Brit to win WTA title in a while and she is in good form. Watson is good near the net and she mixes up her game with dropped shots. In the only previous meeting Wastson won in three sets and my expectations here are the Brit to win a set at least.

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I am considering 0.5 units on this one, but I will give credit to the youngster. Beck is very experienced player, who has reached the second round here, but he has played just three times here and overall he is 40/30 w/l on hard courts in his career. His serve is ok and he will be more solid from the base line, but his game is not sharp enough for the hard courts. Harris started the year excellent with semifinal in Happy vValley(l. to the champion M.Baghdatis). Here Harris beat Huta-Gaklung in straight sets. Harris is local player and he is familiar with the conditions here I think small bet here is the right choice.

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I am really tempted from this odd and that is why I will go for 3 units. Mertl has never been something special and the Czech has never been in the first 160. he is good from the base line and his serve is not bad, but he is limited in his shots and abilities at all. Ymer on the same time is 14 years younger and he proved that he can play on hard courts and not only on clay. The Swedish trashed B.Paire in his previous match and before that earlier this year beat I.Sijsling. Ymer has good serve too and he can control the rallies very well from his forehand. I think the odd is great and I go for it.