Last tips

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The odd dropped to rapidly yesterday and I thought a lot about and decided that still worth the try. Djokovic is unstoppable and for sure he is most vulnerable in the first round of any competition that he takes part. Bellucci won his first match here and he is very aggressive player who plays with left hand. He has proved that he is capable of troubling the Serbian in spite of the surfaces and conditions, so I think if he is going to lose it will not be with more than 6 games.

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The odd dropped down a lot, but I still think it have enough value. Petkovic won the event last year in Sofia, but now she is far away from her average. She is having big problems on serve and when she tries to push the ball usually mistakes. She lost her last three matches and for sure will be under pressure. On the other hand we have Svitolina, which also is in doubtful form. Still the Ukrainian is more solid from the base line and she is making less unforced errors than Petkovic. Moreover Svitolina won the only previous meeting between them and I think she will do it again.

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I think in this final the odds should be reverse. Kvitova may lead with 6-2 in the H2H, but she does not enjoy the slower conditions here. The powerful Czech was 1-2 w/l last year and now she is 2-2 w/l. Radwanska catch the last train as she won the last match in the group and won after losing the first set against Muguruza. The defence game of Radwanska looks ideal for the conditions and last year on this event Radwanska won comfortable with 6-2;6-3. Now I do not see how the Polish will be put in the position of an outsider, especially with Kvitova losing three in a row before coming here and on odds higher than 2.20 the value is enormous.

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This will be pretty tight match and I expect three sets, but I will focus on other market. In the H2H between those two players the result is 1-1, but I clearly remember the match on indoors in Kuala Lumpur. Cuevas was leading with a set and serve for the match but failed. After that Cuevas won his maiden title on ATP level and won three it total after that. Sousa won the title in Kuala Lumpur in 2013. Both players like the long rallies with good first serve and nice forehand. In my opinion the match will be very close, but I see the bigger experience and confidence of the Uruguayan to win.

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This may be the last match in the career of Penneta. She is a fighter and her morale is boosted sky high after the title on the US open. She is good form the base lien and can absorb the paste of Sharapova’s strokes. The Russian is back on track and she won both of her matches after she got back from injury. The only way that she may not advance further is if she lose 2-0 and Halep wins 2-0. This is already impossible because Radwanska won a set. The Italian will play on her best and she is leading in the head to head balance with 3-2, winning a set at least in all five of them. The odd is good and I go for Penneta to win a set.

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Lopez is player with huge serve and excellent volley’s. He will play in Spain, but I do not see this as an advantage for him. Lopez usually abandon most of the matches by that time of the year and he is thinking more for the upcoming vacation. He has just one win the last five appearances here. Johnson is just one spot away from being seeded on the Australian open. He is in form after reached the final on ATP Vienna, after beating tough opponents, like A.Dolgopolov, E.Gulbis, K.Anderson and J.Janowicz. The American won the only previous meeting and on this odd I back Johnson to win.

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I am amazed from this odd. Bester is modest player who can play competitive mostly in Canada his homeland. His serve is ok, but he often makes more unforced errors Struvay is nothing special but his serve is pretty good and consist and his volleys are good because he is better on doubles. Yesterday Bester struggled a lot against total anonymous Morfin Friebel(a local player ranked outside the first 1500 and just 17 years old.) and moreover that was the first win of Bester in his last eight matches. That is why I found good value on Struvay to win.

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I think the odd is rather low for going direct for win of the Bulgarian, but I simply could not miss this match and to go against Nadal. Dimitrov is still adjusting his game to the new racket and this will be the match to show to where is the alliance with F.Davin will go. Dimitrov likes the fats conditions and here is where his sharp serve and forehand will give him bigger edge over Nadal. The good thing is that Nadal serve is vulnerable and Dimitrov can stay more aggressive on return. In the six matches between them so far four time Dimitrov won a set and I back him to win again.

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I simply could not avoid to back Rosol. In my opinion he is most dangerous on indoors, because he plays all in or nothing. Moreover the surface here is very fast and the serve of the Czech will work properly. Rosol has already few matches under his belt on indoors and this will be the first match for Nadal on indoors. Moreover Nadal has one just one match here in the first round from three appearances. That is why I consider any odds above 5.00.

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This is a must bet. Nadal does not like to play indoors and his success on those surfaces is simply poor. Nadal holds record 46/29 w/l on indoors and had not won a single title on the surface so far. Rosol is one of his biggest nemesis and he is always very motivated against the Spaniard. Rosol has huge serve and very powerful base line strokes. Rosol just beat Tsonga in Vienna and this is proof for his form. I think here Rosol can steal a set.

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I see no clear reason why Paire is here. The French has good enough ranking to play on any event that he wants at the moment and he is going to be seeded in it. In the moment in Europe there is ATP500 where the money and the points are significantly bigger. Here in Brest he will play for the first time and no matter that he is first seeded No1 but the 125 points for the winner are not guaranteed and more important he will take less money than a win in the first round in Vienna. He is signed to play in Valencia next week and definitely will play at the Paris masters from 02.11. I think Paire will not be fully into this event and he will not win it. Doumbia is nothing special but he is a qualifier and he is French. It will be no surprise if he managed to stay close to Paire in the result the higher ranked French may do his thing and start mistaking a lot. On that juicy odd I think a small punt is a must

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This will ne huge task for the Bulgarian. Dimitrov played just three matches since US open and he was poor in all of them, in spite of the win in three sets versus J.Sousa. Dimitrov has strong serve and powerful forehand. He likes to play here with quarterfinal, title and final from three appearances. He will meet Krajinovic for the second time this year. In their first meeting the Serbian managed to win a set also and the match ended 6-3;5-7;6-0 for Dimitrov. Krajonovic is in good form and je is 8/2 w/l in his last ten matches. He has good match practice with three wins here in the qualifications and nothing to lose. That is why I expect the Serbian to win a set.

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Ferrer can win easily here, but I still think that Ramos will be a tough nut to be cracked. Ramos made excellent run in Shanghai beating R.Federer and won a set against J.-W. Tsonga. He has good serve and can control the rallies with his forehand. His weak spot is the mentality. Ferrer is leading with 4-0 in the H2H, but I still remember that match in Madrid, where on their favorite clay Ramos has a match point against Ferrer. The event is big and the pressure over Ferrer will be bigger. I think Ramos will take advantage and will win a set here.

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I found this odd as a clear gift. First of all De Schepper is far away from his best. No matter that he likes to play indoors this year his game is modest. His first serve is huge and if he takes the initiative he can be really dangerous, but on the other hand in the longer rallies against crafty opponent, like Isner I do not give many chances for the French. Isner is in great form with only three losses in the last ten matches – Federer, Djokovic and Murray. He has no point to defend here and he is very experienced and determined player, so I back Isner to win and cover.

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I think here Ymer will find his match. The Swedish is good and talented player but in my opinion he is overrated here. His serve is ok and his forehand is pretty good, but indoors I doubted that he will be competitive against Jaziri. The Tunisian is little unpredictable, but he is all around court player with no weak spots. He reached the semifinals on Winston Salem and the semifinals on Izmir Challenger. His slice from backhand I think will be crucial and my call is Jaziri to win.

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I simply could not resist to this high odd. Munoz – De La Nava is experienced player and he uses his left hand, which may be the only real weapon today. His form in the moment is questionable, because he played his first match since 17.09 yesterday and was in big problems against D.Petrovic. Majchrzak is simply in the form of his life. The 19 years old Polish reached his first final on Challenger event last week on Mohammedia challenger beating players, like Cervantes – Huegun, Cecchinato and Carreno – Busta, all of them in straight sets. I think here the odd should be not higher than 2.30 and on this high odd I go for win of the Polish.

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Start time still not determined.
Wozniacki rarely plays on indoors courts and no matter that her career balance is 66/16 w/l I think she will have some hesitations here. Wozniacki is great in defence, but here the more aggressive game will pay off. Lucic is in form and she managed to win a set versus Muguruza in Beijing which only proof oh her current shape. She has nice footwork and good shots from back of the court. I see close match and my call is the Croatian to win a set at least.

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Lorenzi is a veteran, who likes to play on clay, but also he has very good game on the other surfaces too. His serve is ok and he has dropped shots and attack to the net. Lorenzi is unstoppable and he won two Challenger events in a row, but that was in South America and he played 10 matches for 12 day. He has enough time to rest and recover, but still the change of climate should be a factor. Djere is young and talented player with great base line strokes. Here is Casblanca he reached the semifinals earlier this year after starting from the qualifications, so in my opinion the Serbian can win here.

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After the fiasco in Tokyo I see another rough match for Nishikori. The Japanese lost after he won the first set versus Pairer and for sure will be under pressure here. Kyrgios won already one match here and he has very powerful serve and base line strokes. The Australian is very unpredictable, but he is all in or nothing and for me against shaky Nishikori he stand a good chances even for the win, but I will stick with a win of set.

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This is easy bet and no brainer. Nadal no matter of his final in Beijing did not impress with something special. His serve is not that solid and he simply does not feel comfortable enough on the court. Karlovic on the other hand has nothing to lose here. He is having excellent year for his 36 years wit ha title ( in Delray beach). In the H2H record the result is 4-0 for Nadal, but Karlovic won a set in all of them. So my call is the Croatian to win a set.