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TCU scored 55 in 38 minutes against Southern last week. Yes, it's an FCS school but SMU's defense is not much better . Sonny Dykes' teams never bothered playing defense and the Mustangs are in line with that. They allowed 97 points total in Dykes' two games as a head coach.

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TCU has a date with Ohio St. next Saturday. So the script tonight is: thee sooner the game is decided the more starters can rest. SMU doesn't have a prayer: in two games under Sonny Dykes the defense has given up 97 points.

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I'm not sure what caused the odds to jump that much but I'll take it.
Duke had just a week for a complete turnaround. They have to adjust from the Army triple option to Northwestern's balanced attack. Wildcats were solid against Purdue and although S&P+ show they underperformed if Army can throw for 197 yards against Blue Devils - anybody can. Duke trounced Northwestern last yeat 41-17 but it was in Durham. In Evansville no unranked team has beaten the Wildcats in two years.

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A 5 PM PDT start with shadows creeping from the back stop. A Cy Young candidate (Jacob deGrom) with a 1.68 ERA on the mound for the visitors who has given up 2 first inning runs all season. A Dodgers team that is 26th in first inning BAA. A Mets team that is dead last in the majors in batting against lefties, facing a lefty (Alex Wood) who held them scoreless through five innings a monthd-and-a-half ago. Why should I expect runs?

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Last chance for the 51s to go over .500 this season. The last ever night game at Cashman Field where LV is 36-32 this season. Drew Gagnon (6-6, 4.74 ERA but 4-2, 3.74 ERA at home) threw a complete game two-hitter against Tacoma on Tuesday and stymied Sacramento to a six scoreless innings on May 24th. Jordan johnson (1-6, 4.91 ERA) starts for the River Cats. He struggled mightly after his promotion from Double-A Richmond in July. He has two quality starts, both against Albuquerque. Against the rest of the league Johnson is 0-6, 6.57 ERA. And only Iowa has a worse away from home record than Sacramento.

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The Rung n Gun era in Hawaii began with a bang. Rainbow Warriors scored 43 against Colorado St. playing in unbeliveable tempo (73 plays on offense). Navy is not known as a school with great CBs and I'm sure Cole McDonald (26-for-37 for 418 yards) will test them early and often. Hawaii doesn't kick much (if any) FGs so a TD in every quarter should seal the deal.

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Arizona will score points, plenty of them. The new head coach Kevin Sumlin knows how to exploit dual threat QBs and he has a nice jewel in Khalil Tate. While BYU lost all the momentum from Bronco Mendenhall years and slipped to a 4-9 record in 2017 - their worst in more than a decade. Cougars have more than 60 players that are returning from two-year missions and this will be ther first competitive game since kate 2015. It will be too much to ask them to be competitive.

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The market has gone crazy!!!
The day opened with Notre Dame favored by 1.5 and now Michigan is up by so. In the three months leading up to the game the odds have been swinging from one end to the other. But with Shae Patterson academically cleared to start for the Wolverines this could be the decided factor. For the first time since arriving in Ann Arbour Jim Harbaugh has a competent signal caller and everybody expects big things. Whether it will happen is another story but tonight in a nationaly televised game Michigan need to make a statement.

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Gophers are very young on offense and will start a walk-on QB. Zack Annexstad transfered from the IMG academy and become a starter without even being on a scholarship. This will probably mean a lot of ground attack, not many passes and chewing up the clock. Aggies gave up more than 300 yards last Saturday against Wyoming but only 27 points on defense. And the history is not on Minnesota's side - last two seasons they started with a home win but in an extremely ugly fashion. They beat Buffalo 17:7 in 2017 and Oregon St. 30:23 in 2016

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These odds won't last long...
Pirates starter Trevor Williams (10-9, 3.44 ERA) has a nice August. The only team he couldn't solve was...the Cardinals. He gave up 9 hits in just 5 innings and while it transformed into just two runs this was the the third straight start he was hit hard by STL. In May in back-to-back starts he gave up 7 hits in 4 innings and 9 hits in five. The only quality outing against the Cardinals in 2018 was on April 28th when Williams finished 6 innings by giving up 4 runs. But still STL roster has a combined .368 BAA with seven different players hitting over .290! And don't forget - no team in the majors has a higher BAA in August than the Cardinals!

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This is my tip #666. I wondered how naughty should I be to commemorate it? And decided to have some fun with the team I hate the most - Seattle Seachickens, I mean Seattle Seahawks.
If you ask their delusional fans the team is going to the Super Bowl - no doubt about it. But the truth is they are the latest team in NFC West to go to rebuild. Neither fans nor the management will admit it which only further remove them from eventual success somewhere in the future.
Seahawks have no OL. QB Russell Wilson is forced to run for his life on almost every single play. They drafted an RB in the first round who broke a finger just a week into training camp and won't even be the feature back in the system. Their top WR and TE both left. On defense the Legion of Boom do not exist anymore. The DL lost their two best players. On top of that - they hired an OC known for his Stone Age innovations, a DC who was fired by Oakland midway through the last season when his unit was ranked near the bottom in every category and a WR coach who is...son of the head coach. Talk about nepotism...
This should be a long and frustrating season in Northwest.

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Cy Young hopefuls Aaron Nola (15-3, 2.13 ERA) and Max Scherzer (16-6, 2.13 ERA) are involved in a rematch of last Thursday pitching duel. That game was scoreless until the seventh inning and neither team instills much confidence offensively (yes, Nationals scored 15 runs on Sunday but it was in the eightgh and ninth against a burned out reliever and two rookies). On a day without much wind the ball should stay in the park. Nola has a 2.00 ERA at home, Scherzer - 1.82 away. Why there should be any runs scored?

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Grizzlies trimmed the magic number to 1 and will clinch PCL Pacific Northern with a win. Which also will eliminate Bees from postseason consideration. Josh James (6-4, 3.29 ERA) will start for Fresno who will have some major leaguers led by OF Jake Marisnick on a rehab. James is 5-1, 2.45 ERA at Chukchansi Park, has won four straight home decisions and is unbeaten since his debut on May 10th.
South African Dylan Unsworth (6-1, 5.45 ERA) will take the mound for the Bees who were raided by the parent MLB team LA Angels and have allowed whopping 62 runs during their current 8-game road trip.

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For the IronPigs it's win and you're in. A win clinches IL North and puts them into the playoffs. Yesterday Michael King held IronPigs without a hit for six innings but today RailRiders will sent Erik Swanson to the mound. While he's 2-2, 4.50 ERA in Triple-A he trends in the wrong direction. Swanson allowed 24 hits in 22.1 innings for a 4.84 ERA this month.
IronPigs have Jerad Eickhoff on a rehab assignment. Former Phillies starter will be held to 75 pitches as he prepares for September call to the majors. Eickhoff held IL West leaders Indianapolis to a run in 4.2 IP in his only Triple-A outing last Sunday.

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I missed the line at 36.5 but in this case it doesn't make that much of a difference.
Both teams like to throw a lot which means a lot of possessions, a lot of plays, stoppages for incomplete passes and a longer game generally. Hawaii will field a largely inexperienced defense filled with freshmen and while Colorado St. lost most offensive firepower from last season they will start a Power Five transfer at QB in K.J. Carta-Samuels. Despite being buried on the Washington Huskies' depth chart behind Jake Browning he still saw action in 25 games over three seasons.
The wild card here is the altitude. Ft. Collins is located at 1519 m above sea level and visiting teams always struggle with the thin air. Especially if they spend most of the day on defense.

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Sensational rookie Dereck Rodriguez starts for SF in an 11-games quality starts streak. The son of Pudge Rodriguez owns a 1.52 ERA since June the 9th and has allowed more than two runs only once in the last two months.
Texas will counter with Drew Hutchison. Since joining the Rangers he has a 7.43 ERA and a .302 BAA against. Hutchison pitched only once into the fifth inning and with the Rangers averaging a run per game less in away games than the Giants at home this should be a tough night for him.

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Carlos Rodon has been incredible for the White Sox. Chicago's lefty has a 1.60 ERA since July 1st and has given up a total of two runs in last 23 innings at home. In his last 7 outings White Sox has been trailing after five innings only once (against the Astros) and Twins' lineup has a collective .175 BAA against him.
Kyle Gibson (7-9, 3.51 ERA) starts for Minnesota. Despite a solid year his two outings against CWS were not pretty. He gave up 3 runs in 6.2 IP in a no-decision on May 6th and was touched for 5 runs in 7 IP on June 27th.

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Nats just traded Daniel Murphy and Matt Adams effectively raising the white flag and ending their season. Washington resigned to the inevitable and with the news that Bryce Harper was also claimed God knows what kind of motivation will they have.

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Grizzlies are a couple of wins away from a playoff spot. At 35-28 there are only two teams in the whole PCL with a better away record than them. While River Cats are 15th out of 16 teams at home (23-37). Daniel Camarena (0-7, 5.05 ERA) starts for Sacramento after limiting El Paso to a hit in seven innings in his previous home game. But the outing against Chihuhuas is an outlier. He has a 1.65 ERA against them and 5.66 against the rest of the league. Including 8 in 4.1 IP against Fresno on July 17th.

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Bartolo Colon starts for Rangers. Big Sexy has a 1.26 WHIP and since he walks no more than a batter per start this translates to roughly a hit per inning. He faced the A's already three times this season and has given up 7 (6 IP), 6 (5 IP) and 9 (7 IP) hits and Oakland's lineup has a combined .330 BAA against him.