Last tips

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Memphis is averaging 8.8 points in first quarter this season. Tigers have scored a TD in 10 of 12 games this season and they are facing a team that is 55th in scoring defense in FBS. Also BYU has never won a game in Florida and today they play in Miami!

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Another conspiracy pick. If Dallas wins 5 of the 6 playoffs participants in NFC (apart from the NFC South champion) will be known. They will be playing just for position in Week 17 and this will be terrible for the ratings. In similar circumstances last year 13-2 Seattle lost at home to Arizona – a team they beat 58-0 a season before.

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Belief is Steelers can put big numbers on anybody but only two teams had scored 26 or more against Chiefs this season. Tennessee did it in Week 1 and Denver – in Week 13. But both times it happened at Arrowhead. Playing away KC allowed 24, 15, 22, 20, 13, 24 and 17 points. And since Mike Tomlin took over as a head coach of Pittsburgh he’s 2-1 against the Chiefs with a total of 53 points scored.

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Utah plays for the record-tying fifth time in Las Vegas bowl looking for its first win since 2001. The Utes finished 8-4 in Pac-12 and went 2-3 against ranked team beating UCLA and USC and lost on a last second FG against Arizona State. Colorado State (10-2) has one of the most dynamic offenses but their rush defense finished 88th in the nation. Which should create problems against a team that is 36th in rushes per game. And after Jim McElwain departed to Florida Rams will be led by Dave Baldwin who will serve as both offensive coordinator and interim coach on Saturday.

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Saturday marks the start of the bowl season and both Air Force and Western Michigan look to finish the remarkable turnaround. Air Force went from 2-10 to 9-3 in just year and in 2014 they beat two 10-win teams. Western Michigan went from 1-11 to 8-4 under head coach PJ Fleck and were in contention for the MAC title right until the final week. However Broncos are 0-5 in bowl games while under Troy Calhoun Air Force is 2-4. Usually service academies pick an opponent they are sure to beat. And don’t forget that the game will be played on the blue turf in Boise. And unlike the Falcons it’s not a familiar place for Western Michigan.

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Time for the annual conspiracy pick. If Panthers lose NFC South will probably be decided in Week 16. Which will mean two Week 17 games that are without playoff implication. Which is bad for NFL ratings. Next Sunday’s schedule already has three such games and adding another two will almost eliminate the interest in the early slate. Therefore Panthers will win to keep the NFC South without a champion for another week.

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Ravens need a win (and just a little help) to clinch a playoff spot. Houston is down to its fourth and fifth QB for the season. And no matter which one (Thad Lewis or Case Keenum) will be chosen Texans will have hard time to do anything on offense. Lewis was signed on November 24th and Keenum (who went 0-8 as a starter last year) was brought back from St. Louis on Monday! WR Andre Johnson should be back but probably offensively the plan will be built around RBs Arian Foster and Alfred Blue. However Baltimore is third against the run in the league.

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Historically bad NFC South is about to take turn to the worse. If Atlanta and New Orleans both lose this week it will be guaranteed that just for the second time in history the division champion will have a negative record. Atlanta’s path to history is easy. They face a team that scored 27 or more points in six of the last seven games and is sixth in the league in scoring offense. On the other side Atlanta is 24th in scoring defense (26.3 PPG) and only once since September has allowed less than 25 at home.

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Bettors fell in love with Johnny Manziel in the last hour and Cincinnati’ odds skyrocketed in the last hour. Johnny Football had a nice college career but I doubt he’s NFL ready. BTW since taking over as a coach of the Bengals in 2003 Marvin Lewis has never been swept by the Browns. He already lost at home and it’s time for revenge.

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Playing at home this season Detroit is 6-1 at the halftime with an average margin of wins 7.8 points. The only time they were losing after 30 minutes of play was at October 19th against New Orleans but back then Lions played without WR Clavin Johnson. Megatron is healthy and ready to cause nightmares to the Vikings.

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Indianapolis holds the longest current winning streak in NFL at home to an opponent. Since Houston entered the league in 2002 they are 0-12 at RCA Dome and Lucas Oil Stadium. And only two of those losses came by a margin of less than 6 points. Colts will win the AFC South with a victory and there’s no better place than home to do it.

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When Week 15 comes I bet led more by guts than by rationales. The case tonight: Arizona wins and becomes the first team to qualify for the playoffs. So why should I bet against the Rams coming of back-to-back shutouts? Because they shut out Oakland and Washington which offenses are ranked 31st and 27th respectively. And while both Raiders (28th) and Redskins (25th) are bad on defense too Arizona is 3rd in points allowed, 6th in rush yards allowed, 2nd in INTs and joint first in defensive TDs scored. Including two in 30-seconds span when the teams last met.

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In December most playoff teams are looking to establish the run and not throw the ball that much. Especially in cold weather. Temperature tonight will be around -2 at kickoff with a chance of snow. In such conditions I like Lacy’s chances to get 20 or more touches. He has 9 TDs this season and in his only previous game against Atlanta has also found the endzone.

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This looks like the easiest bet in years. To cover the 6.5 means a scored TD and Green Bay has done it in all but one of their games so far – on September 14th against the NY Jets.

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Four times this season Raiders have scored 17 or more – once after the bye-week, two times after a last minute TD in a blowout and the fourth time was against KC in their only win in 2014. To cover the 16.5 Raiders must score at least two TDs. That's something that Niners have allowed only once since the start of November – against New Orleans. And there's no way to compare their offense to the 32nd in the NFL!

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Jimmy Graham has scored a TD in six consecutive games against Carolina. He scored 16 TDs in last 15 home games. After not having the ball thrown his way last week in Pittsburgh I expect him to be a big part of the plan against the Panthers.

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Two teams in long losing streaks will meet in Nashville. Titans last won on October 12th against Jacksonville, Giants last beat Atlanta on October 12th. Things bottomed out for the G-Men last Sunday when they led Jacksonville midway through the first quarter 21-0 only to lose on a last minute FG. If they are not able to beat a team that is 31st in scoring defense (282.2 PPG), 29th in scoring offense (17.8 PPG) and will have only two healthy WRs (Justin Hunter is out with a lacerated spleen and Kendall Wright broke a bone in his hand during Wednesday training) heads will roll.

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It’s been a nice ride for the Browns but reality took over last Sunday in Buffalo. And reports suggest that the team is now divided whether Bryan Hoyer or rookie Johnny Manziel should start at QB. Cleveland’s top S Tashaun Gipson and CB Robert Nelson will miss the game because of injuries which is a big problem to have when facing Andrew Luck and his 34 TD passes!

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Since Marvin Lewis took over Cincinnati in 2003 he’s 7-16 against Pittsburgh including 2-10 at home and has never beaten the Steelers in consecutive games at Paul Brown Stadium. Bengals won 20-10 last year and went 8-0 at home but this season is different. They are 4-1-1 and won only one of their last three home games. Bengals are a little short on defense as LBs Vontaze Burfict and Jayson DiManche are out and DE Margus Hunt is doubtful after not practicing all week. Also DT Domata Peko will be a game-time decision.

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This game is known as “The race to 50” as it's featuring two of the most prolific offenses in the country. Marshall is ranked second in scoring with 46.7 PPG while LA Tech is nine places lower with 38.8 PPG. C-USA title games have been shootouts in recent years and I see no reason to stop the trend.