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Brandon Doughty is back for sixth season in Western Kentucky and the NCAA defenses should be terrified. #1 in the nation in 2014 with 49 TDs and 4830 yards he leads the Hilltoppers against the 68th best defense in the country. Vanderbilt named Derek Mason as a defensive coordinator along with the head coach job but the Commodores are still very young (only 9 scholarship seniors).
The reason I'm taking the over is the new Vanderbilt offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig who came from Wisconsin to implement the fast tempo. And he's facing the 110th best defense from last year.

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Third preseason game is when the starters usually play the whole first half. And these are probably the two most explosive offenses in the NFL. Aaron Rogers had two pretty forgettable performances so far but the injury to Jordy Nelson means more playing time tonight to get accustomed to the new receiving options.
Eagles are treating preseason like it's the regular season already. They put up 23 points against Indianapolis and 24 against Baltimore in the first half alone. And keep in mind that defenses usually don't have a specific game plan for preseason games. Which clearly gives the advantage to the offense. Plus: the trend this year is to go for two after a TD!

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I have a feeling that the first quarter will end in a tie. This is the only chance for the bookies not to give away free money as -0.5 odds can be found as high as 2.56 for Seattle and 2.45 for NE. Also: after a two-week layoff offenses have the tendency to adapt a little bit quicker than the defenses. And there's no denying that Seattle is a defense-driven team.

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This is a bet more on historical trend. This is Tom Brady's sixth SB appearance. In previous five (and in most of those he led a loaded with weapons offense) the total after 30 minutes was 17, 24, 14, 10 and 19 points. For Seattle it's the third trip at the big game and in the previous two the total in the first two quarters was 10 and 22 points. Also: the last time this season Seahawks had a first half with over 24 points total was on November 16th.

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Seattle is averaging 4.1 PPG in the first quarter. However they scored more than 3 only twice in the last 9 matches and both times scoring a TD just seconds before the quarter expired. NE is allowing 4.4 PPG in Q1 but 6 times since November 2nd they held the opponent to 3 and under.

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New England is averaging 4.8 PPG in Q1 and haven't scored more than 7 points in last 12 games. Colts are averaging 5.6 PPG and scored more than 7 just once since October 9th. And if you you take a look at the total after 15 minutes in NE matches 13.5 was covered 4 out of 17 times, in Colts games it was done 5 out of 18 times.

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In the last 6 weeks Denver went from pass first to run heavy team. During that span CJ Anderson established himself as the go-to guy. He scored 8 TDs since November 23rd including 7 in last 4 games.

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Green Bay is averaging 9.4 PPG in Q1 and 12.0 PPG at home. Dallas is averaging 5.6 PPG in Q1 and 6.8 PPG in away games. To cover 9.5 means a TD and a FG and it was done in 8 of Cowboys’ last 9 games and 13 times in GB matches all season.

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I usually don’t post tips so many days before the match but I fear that the odds will drop quickly once bettors realize how far off are bookies. Since QB Russell Wilson entered the league in 2012 he’s 3-0 against the Panthers. However the combined margin of victories is just 13 points. Why should I expect the Seahawks to win that big on Saturday?

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I tried to convince myself that Cincinnati is a legitimate contender but I can’t trust Marvin Lewis. Since he took over as a head coach in 2003 Bengals are 0-5 in playoffs with an average margin of losses 13.6 points. And in last three years with Andy Dalton as a QB they lost to Texans by 21 and 6 and to Chargers by 17. Dalton, BTW, finished in those three losses 70-of-123 for 728 yards with a TD and 6 INTs.

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There are two main factors behind this bet. 1: Pittsburgh will be without RB Le’Veon Bell who injured his knee last week. Bell scored 11 TDs in last six games and missing him will be a huge blow for Steelers’ running game. 2. Weather forecast is for torrential rain. In such conditions at Heinz Filed a couple of years ago Pittsburgh and Miami finished 3-0 with points coming from a last-minute FG.

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I think bookies gave Panthers too much credit for last week’s win against Atlanta. Yes, 34-3 sounds convincingly but after all they beat a 6-10 team. While Panthers were 4-8-1 just three weeks ago. Cardinals finished the regular season fifth in scoring defense (18.7 PPG), 7th in INTs (18) and joint first in defensive TDs. They may not win with Ryan Lindley at QB but definitely won’t be blown out.

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TCU finished regular season second in the nation in scoring with 46.8 PPG. They are averaging 22.25 PPG in the first half and just twice in 12 games failed to finish the first half with at least 17. Both times (@West Virginia and @Kansas) they played in rainy conditions which slowed them significantly. The weather today won’t be a factor as Peach Bowl is played in Georgia Dome. And while Ole Miss is #1 in scoring defense in FBS (13.8 PPG) they played mainly against pro offenses and haven’t faced a good spread one like TCU’s.

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Bookies made us a nice New Year present. TCU scored 176 points in Q1 this season (14.7 PPG) and in all 12 games they had at least a TD after 15 minutes of play!

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Fiesta Bowl is ready for an offensive explosion. There were 810 points scored (62.3 PPG) in Arizona’s matches this season and 863 (66.4 PPG) in Boise State’s. Both teams have explosive offenses (Arizona is 28th in FBS with 34.8 PPG, Boise State is ranked 9th with 39.8 PPG) and defenses that usually keep both teams in the game (both teams allow more than 26 PPG). Expect plenty of points in the second-to-last NCAA game for 2014!

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Belief is Notre Dame will be crushed tonight especially after benching QB Everett Golson in favor of Malik Zaire. The latter however saw two quarters of action in the season finale against USC and led two Fighting Irish TD scoring drives. Yes, LSU has an excellent defense but after almost five weeks layoff even the best players tend to become a little rusty. And after all we talk about a mere FG scored. And Notre Dame finished with 0 points after Q1 just twice in 12 games this year.

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San Diego controls its own destiny but almost never in such situation the team that leads the wild card pack wins the playoff spot. Last year Chargers erased 10 point deficit in the final quarter, got help from the referees on a last-second missed field goal and went to win in OT. They are due to a payback. BTW bettors fell in love with Chargers after Alex Smith was ruled out with a lacerated spleen. However his replacement Chase Daniels went 21-of-30 for 200 yards with a TD against San Diego last year.

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As crazy as it sounds while North Carolina finished 11th worst in total defense (495.7 YPG) they became better by the month (543 in September, 482 in October, 462 in November). Tar Heels released defensive coordinator Vic Koenning in November and assistant Dan Disch will call the plays in the Quick Lane Bowl.
Rutgers finished the season 84th in scoring offense (25.6 PPG). Scarlet Knights average 5.3 PPG in the opening quarter and only three times in 12 matches there have been more than 14 points scored after 15 minutes of play. North Carolina is averaging 7.2 PPG in Q1 and just twice in their last six games the total in Q1 was over 14 points.

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NC State should be happy just to make it to the bowl season. The Wolfpack started 4-0 then lost 5 of its next 6 games and finished above .500 only because of two monster performances by RB Shadrach Thornton against Wake Forest and North Carolina. Unfortunately UCF is fifth in the nation against the run (97.4 YPG) while sitting at #3 in total defense (282.8 YPG) and #9 in scoring defense (17.9 PPG). For the Knights, co-champions of American Athletic, it’s almost a home game (St. Petersburg is just 170 km from Orlando) and they should be able to extend their bowl winning streak.

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There have been 999 points scored in 12 WKU matches this season. And even if you exclude 67-66 madness against Marshall there are still well over 70 PPG in their games! Hilltoppers have this season’s NCAA leader in yards (4344) and TDs (44) Brandon Doughty. On the other side their defense is 122nd in FBS with 39.3 PPG allowed and 123rd in yards allowed with 501.8 YPG. And don’t forget that usually the first edition of a bowl game (this is the debut of Bahamas Bowl) has been high scoring.