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Start at 5:05 PT means a shadow creeping over the home plate making the ball almost invisible to the hitters. Giants' starter Madison Bumgarner has allowed one first inning run in seven starts in 2017 (April 8th in San Diego) while Dodgers' Ryu has a 5.79 ERA in the opening frame but only two of the runs came at home. However Giants average just 0.3 RPG (second-worst in MLB) in the first inning away from home.

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Jacob deGrom is on a roll. Since being hammered in back-to-back starts at Milwaukee and Texas Mets' ace is 8-0 with a 1.61 ERA and only St. Louis on July 7th scored more than a run before the end of the fifth inning. And it's a day game. deGrom is 19-3, 1.69 ERA lifetime in such conditions.

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Marlins were awful (6IP, 3H, 1R) against Sal Romano last Sunday but I firmly believe that good teams (Miami has a .289 BAA in July) will make the necessary adjustments the second time.
Reds will face a live batting practice machine in Vance Worley (0-2, 6.37 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) who has thrown just 12.1 innings since his last start (June 9th) but still managed to give up 7 runs.

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Red Sox have 13 hits in 22 innings combined in first two games of the series but it was against Paxton and King Felix. Today they will face Andrew Moore who fell back to earth since the beginning of July with a 7.80 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP.

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Reds split their last 8 road games but at 16-30 are still the third-worst in majors in away games. Starter Luis Castillo allows a .254 BAA in starts not at Great American Ballpark walking almost a batter per inning. And Reds are 6-18 against southpaws!
Yankees are 26-17 at home and thanks to that are still in a wild card possession. And starter Jordan Montgomery has a way better split at Yankees Stadium (3-1, 3.77 ERA) than overall (6-5, 4.09 ERA).

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Mets starter Zack Wheeler has a 1.55 WHIP. In six of his last eight starts he gave up more than a hit per inning and at Citi Field he gave up 25 hits in 18 innings since the beginning of June. With the back end of Mets bullpen (Reed, Blevins, Goeddel) unavailable it will mean a lot of Fernando Salas (1.85 WHIP) and Josh Smoker (1.86 WHIP) and BTW against better pitchers yesterday A's racked up 14 hits!

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One of the biggest mysteries in baseball is how can Rafael Montero still hold a major league roster spot. Bouncing between the bullpen and the starting rotation he had one decent game in San Francisco a month ago (5.2 IP, 5H, 1ER) but apart from that he's been downright terrible. Montero has a 7.11 ERA at home and 6.27 ERA as a starter. He's always aiming for the outside corner, frequently missing and is afraid to pitch inside. As a result he gives up a decent number of walks that drive up his pitch count quickly. With a taxated bullpen Mets will either let Montero pitch at least six innings or will replace him by someone like Neil Ramirez who is even worse.

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Brewers open second half of the season against the worst visiting team in the majors. Phillies will start rookie Nick Pivetta who shaved almost a point off his ERA in the last two games but that was against two of the worst hitting teams - Mets and Padres. Now he faces the team that is seventh in hitting in June - .277.

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NL is due to win. Since Patrick Corbin was hit hard during the 2013 All-Star game at Citi Field NL is waiting for the end of the streak. The big catalyst during AL run was Mike Trout who won't play tonight because of a thumb surgery. AL is also very short of quality starters as Kluber, Fulmer and Darvish all pitched on Sunday and Keuchel is on the DL. That leaves them with only Sale, uneven Archer, unproven Severino and McCullers and journeymen Santana and Vargas. Plus some of their relievers (mainly Betances and Osuna) have been struggling lately with control.

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Arizona is 33-14 at home (second-best in majors) while Reds are 15-29 in away games (second-worst in majors). Diamondbacks' starter Patrick Corbin is 6-8, 4.81 ERA but is more than respectable at home (5-2, 3.17 ERA). At the same time Cincy's Homer Bailey got his first win since August on Monday but it was against the slumping Rockies.

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After an extremely disappointing 1-8 road trip which trimmed their Wild Card lead to just six games Rockies are back at Coors Filed for a four game series against the Reds. While on a two-game losing streak Colorado is still 22-15 at home while Cincy is tied for the worst record in away games in the majors (12-26). While neither starting pitcher is familiar with the opposition I'll go with the better hitting team. Rockies have a BAA of .267 (.290 at home) while Reds are .260 (.256 inn away games).

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Hot as hell George Springer has scored the most runs for MLB's best offense. He scored 59 runs (20 in June), is 5 for 10 with 4 runs against Oakland starter Jesse Hahn who was already pummeled twice by the Astros in 2017 already.

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A suspiciously low total. Blue Jays starter Joe Biagini is 1-3, 2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP at home and has given up 25 hits in 27.2 IP. Orioles starter Kevin Gausman (1-4, 9.00 ERA, 2.14 WHIP in away starts) has already faced Toronto twice this year and although he didn't gave up many runs (4 in 11.1 IP) it was like a hit parade for the Blue Jays (15 hits).

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Phillies have the worst overall record (23-48) in majors and the worst away from home (9-28). They are starting reliever Mark Leiter who spent two weeks in Triple-A being stretched in innings pitched but still only one completed six innings.
Diamondbacks (46-27) are 9-1 in last 10 games, just won a series in Colorado and with 26-9 have second-best home record in baseball. Starter Patrick Corbin (6-6, 5.19 ERA) struggles away but is 5-1, 3.45 ERA at home where the team hasn't lost in his starts since April 4th!

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Not sure why such a low line even exists. Mets' starter Tyler Pill has no business in the majors. He was called up to replace the injured Matt Harvey after two weeks in Triple-A. Dodgers' starter Rich Hill is the weakest link of the staff with a 3-3, 5.14 ERA.

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Losing is not fun. Neither for me nor for the Yankees...
Dropping seven in a row knocked out of first place in AL East and it's time to stop the streak. Yankees face Ricky Nolasco (2-8, 5.01 ERA) who lost six straight decisions and hasn't won away from Angels Stadium since April the 18th.

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Numbers are very interesting. Phillies are one of the worst teams against lefties (.226 BA, .287 OBP) and Arizona starter Robbie Ray has given up 1 run in the last 39 innings and none away from home since May 3rd. Ray has an 0.64 ERA in away starts in 2017 and Phillies are 8-11 in games against lefties.
On the other side Arizona is batting .230 in away games and .240 in day games and Phillies starter Ben Lively has given up just one run at home.

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Cubs starter John Lackey is having a very stinky season. 4-7, 5.26 ERA and it doesn't matter if he plays at home or away. Plus Pirates has been one of the best teams in day games. Pirates are batting .274 and only once this season Lackey has limited the opposition to 3 or less runs through first five innings in away starts.

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Phillies are ninth in runs scored at home in the opening inning (0.79 RPG), Diamondbacks are second away from home (0.78 RPG). Arizona starts Patrick Corbin who has a whooping 12.46 ERA in the opening inning and has given up a run in every game away from home. Phillies will send Aaron Nola who has a 6.75 ERA in the opening inning and has given up a run in 4 of the 6 starts after returning from the DL.

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Brewers lead the NL Central despite being 17-19 at home. It's time to pull away facing one of the worst teams in MLB. Padres (27-40) just swept Cincinnati but are 10-22 away from home. SD will start converted mop-up reliever Miguel Diaz (1-1, 6.92 ERA). His first start last Sunday lasted just two innings and he also threw three scoreless against the Brewers after the game was long out of reach.
Milwaukee will rely on Junior Guerra (1-1, 2.45 ERA). Opening Day starter spent a month and a half on the DL. Since his return he gave up six runs in 22.2 IP.