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Caught in their unsuccessful final push to secure a playoff spot in the Euroleague, Milano have incredibly lost 3 of their last 4 matches in the Serie A and while their domestic supremacy and first place in the standings are not in question, I'm still expecting a reaction from the Italian giants after an entire week to rest and digest yet another Euroleague elimination. Curiously Varese have also lost 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions as the absence of Archie is proving to be decisive, forcing coach Caja in shorter rotations and more minutes for his players. In both of their last two matches Varese have shown an evident lack of energy which led to poor performances and disappointing defeats to Torino and Wurzburg. While a sold-out is expected tonight at Varese and this is a local derby, the difference in talent is just too big to suspect another defeat for Milano here. One way or another the visitors should prevail here and the 4-point handicap seems very achievable all things considered.

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The Utah Jazz are entering tonight's game against Sacramento as the hottest team in the NBA having won 11 of their last 12 games, 9 of them by 15 or more points but helped by an overly soft schedule during that period. In fact they have played with no playoff teams except perhaps Brooklyn who are still fighting for a spot in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile they are still battling through injuries with Favors sidelined and Rubio a game-time decision. The Sacramento Kings may have missed the playoffs but their season has to be considered a success overall considering the progress made by their young talents, while they are still in time to avoid another losing campaign with a 39-40 record and 3 games remaining. No question about who the favourite is here but still the odds for Sacramento are very tempting at 5.75.

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While Valencia have been under-performing in the ACB since February with only a 3-4 record to show during this period, it's also difficult to argue that their involvement in the Eurocup and the tight schedule has played a role in this. Having reached the final of the competition, they should be ready to pick up the pace in the domestic ACB too, considering they are only a couple of wins over the 8th placed Manresa. Ironically Andorra have suffered a similar decline due to their partecipation in the same Eurocup competition and while they have recovered lately recording two straight victories, will face Valencia tonight not in the best physical condition. After injuries to Walker and Stevic, they have temporarily lost in-form center Moussa Diagne who was having a terrific March averaging nearly a double-double with 14 points and 9 rebounds per game. Considering also Valencia's dominance in the rebounding department, second best in the league, Diagne's absence will surely be giving Andorra's coach Navarro some headaches. Just can't see Valencia as such big outsiders here all things considered.

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Panathinaikos are probably the hottest team in the Euroleague right now, riding a 6 game winning streak and close to securing a playoff spot, a feat that just a month ago seemed remote. But it's still not enough for me to jump on the Panathinaikos bandwagon. The glaring structural weaknesses of this roster have been well documented in previous mentions and have not gone away but merely disguised by coach Pitino's astute adjustments like faster pace and quicker offensive execution.
Real Madrid are having their usual rock-solid regular season campaign, easily top-3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and have already secured home court advantage for the playoffs, simply waiting to find out their opponent. That doesn't mean they will be without motivation playing against long-time Euroleague rivals Panathinaikos in an OAKA arena that will be packed as another sold-out is expected.
In the end, form alone in not enough for the Greens to be considered the clear-cut favourites against this Real Madrid team who have the expertise of establishing their superiority even in the most complicated conditions.

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It's funny how results and standings can be deceiving sometimes. Cantu may be sitting a win above Trieste at the moment but few would claim they are truly the better team. Cantu are running an unreal 9-1 record since December 30th despite internal issues of financial nature and the departure of key players like Udanoh and Mitchell as well as coach Pashutin! On the other hand no team in thr league other than the bottom 4, have a worse net rating while they are also close to the bottom in both turnover ratio and defensive efficiency. All signs not of a good team. Moreover all of their last 3 wins came almost at the photo finish in highly contested games. Trieste have already exceeded expectations this season and are deservedly in hunt of a playoff spot. Without downplaying Cantu's great form, there is little doubt in my mind about which is the superior team here. Trieste are more balanced, more consistent, have bigger depth and they lead most of the meaningful statistical categories. Ultimately Cantu's run doesn't seem sustainable and it's mostly a question of time before they start losing again. Hopefully they will begin tonight!

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Despite losing a phenomenal Alex Renfroe in mid-season, Manresa have remained largely unaffected and are still inside the playoff zone exceeding all expectations. Incredibly for Joan Penarroya's team they have also avoided any significant fluctuations in their performance during the season, never losing more than two straight games but one has to wonder how sustainable this is. Burgos are coming to town in fine shape, having won 4 of their last 5 games as the additions of Sutton, Lima and Benite transformed the team, bringing also a healthy dose of athleticism in their frontcourt. Considering Fisher's physical issues for Manresa, still a doubt for tonight's encounter, and this sense of over-achieving for the hosts, this Burgos side may prove to be a much more complicated opponent than the odds suggest. Anything over 2.60 looks good enough to get involved here.

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We backed Murcia two times last month against Obradoiro and Murcia without reward, only for them to beat mighty Barcelona just a week later, although their success proved short-lived. First they were beaten by Antwerp in the first leg of the Champions League and then were crashed by Valencia for the ACB and while the opposition wasn't the easiest, still their performance left a lot to be desired. Now a 9 point margin will be required in the second leg to eliminate the Belgians but one has to wonder if the Champions League is only a distraction at this point considering their desperate position in the ACB and a crucial home game coming up on Sunday. Antwerp have been one of the nice surprises of the competition and already took a few important scalps throughout their campaign such as Hapoel Jerusalem and Dijon. Clearly a team not to be underestimated that will be arriving in Spain in great form and fresh from capturing the Belgian Cup last weekend. It remains to be seen if Murcia will keep their focus tonight especially if they find themselves chasing Antwerp early. In any case it's worth backing the visitors to complete the upset here.

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We backed Murcia two times last month against Obradoiro and Murcia without reward, only for them to beat mighty Barcelona just a week later, although their success proved short-lived. First they were beaten by Antwerp in the first leg of the Champions League and then were crashed by Valencia for the ACB and while the opposition wasn't the easiest, still their performance left a lot to be desired. Now a 9 point margin will be required in the second leg to eliminate the Belgians but one has to wonder if the Champions League is only a distraction at this point considering their desperate position in the ACB and a crucial home game coming up on Sunday. Antwerp have been one of the nice surprises of the competition and already took a few important scalps throughout their campaign such as Hapoel Jerusalem and Dijon. Clearly a team not to be underestimated that will be arriving in Spain in great form and fresh from capturing the Belgian Cup last weekend. It remains to be seen if Murcia will keep their focus tonight especially if they find themselves chasing Antwerp early. In any case it's worth backing the visitors to complete the upset here.

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After their 9 point victory in the first leg, Nanterre are going to Turkey to defend their lead and advance to the next round while Besiktas will seek to overturn an important deficit playing without two key offensive weapons in Benzing and Rich. Nanterre have their own absence to deal with as Waters remains in the injury list but the French have coped superbly playing without him so far, recording 3 wins in 3 games after the World Cup Qualifiers break. While the task at hand may not seem prohibitive at first glance for Besiktas, I'm not convinced they still have the necessary firepower to secure a double digit advantage against an opponent in form like Nanterre playing with great confidence at the moment.

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After their 9 point victory in the first leg, Nanterre are going to Turkey to defend their lead and advance to the next round while Besiktas will seek to overturn an important deficit playing without two key offensive weapons in Benzing and Rich. Nanterre have their own absence to deal with as Waters remains in the injury list but the French have coped superbly playing without him so far, recording 3 wins in 3 games after the World Cup Qualifiers break. While the task at hand may not seem prohibitive at first glance for Besiktas, I'm not convinced they still have the necessary firepower to secure a double digit advantage against an opponent in form like Nanterre playing with great confidence at the moment.

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Second leg of the tie between Nizhny Novgorod and Venezia after the Russians totally dominated the first match winning by a 23 point margin and Venezia are practically looking for a miracle to advance to the Quarterfinals. The Italians have not been in a brilliant state of form since late January and the break for the World Cup qualifiers doesn't seem to have helped the team either to rediscover their prior form. On the other hand, Nizhny have coincidentally started playing their best basketball of the season after a late January loss to Le Mans in France and have never looked back since, winning 7 of their last 8 games in VTB and Champions League including a couple of impressive victories over Unics Kazan and Zenit and only losing on the road to Lokomotiv Kuban after a highly contested game. Both Strebkov and Czerapowicz are also back in the roster after recovering from their respective injuries and have already partecipated in the last VTB match of Nizhny if only for a few minutes, so they should be able to contribute in tomorrow's encounter.
Not sure why Venezia are so heavily favoured here. Even ignoring the first leg's result and admitting that Venezia have been the better and more consistent team during this Champions League season, still one cannot deny that Nizhny Novgorod have turned the corner these last couple of months and simply cannot be underestimated. Having a 23 point lead to defend can sometimes play dangerous tricks to the minds of the players but this is still not enough to prevent me from backing the Russians here. Note that Pinnacle are usually very late for moneyline odds and with such a big handicap I'm not sure if they will even bother.

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Second leg of the tie between Nizhny Novgorod and Venezia after the Russians totally dominated the first match winning by a 23 point margin and Venezia are practically looking for a miracle to advance to the Quarterfinals. The Italians have not been in a brilliant state of form since late January and the break for the World Cup qualifiers doesn't seem to have helped the team either to rediscover their prior form. On the other hand, Nizhny have coincidentally started playing their best basketball of the season after a late January loss to Le Mans in France and have never looked back since, winning 7 of their last 8 games in VTB and Champions League including a couple of impressive victories over Unics Kazan and Zenit and only losing on the road to Lokomotiv Kuban after a highly contested game. Both Strebkov and Czerapowicz are also back in the roster after recovering from their respective injuries and have already partecipated in the last VTB match of Nizhny if only for a few minutes, so they should be able to contribute in tomorrow's encounter.
Not sure why Venezia are so heavily favoured here. Even ignoring the first leg's result and admitting that Venezia have been the better and more consistent team during this Champions League season, still one cannot deny that Nizhny Novgorod have turned the corner these last couple of months and simply cannot be underestimated. Having a 23 point lead to defend can sometimes play dangerous tricks to the minds of the players but this is still not enough to prevent me from backing the Russians here. Note that Pinnacle are usually very late for moneyline odds and with such a big handicap I'm not sure if they will even bother.

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The big derby of the Canary Islands and one that sees both teams in a complicated moment. Tenerife are surprisingly on the verge of elimination in the Champions League after their 12 point defeat in Greece against Promitheas and just inside the playoff zone in the ACB after their loss at Zaragoza. Making matters worse Javier Beiran who is having a great comeback season after last year's physical issues, was injured in their latest match and expected to miss a couple of weeks in a very delicate period for Tenerife's goals. Gran Canaria are paying a steep price for their partecipation in the Euroleague for the first time in the history of the club as they have found themselves involved in the relegation battle in the ACB. Reinforcements were deemed necessary to avoid the drop with Cory Jefferson and Jacob Wiley coming to bring much needed athleticism to their frontcourt. With the distraction of the Euroleague finishing in less than a month and a very demanding domestic schedule in March, Gran Canaria will inevitably shift their focus in the ACB now, and much like Murcia, this is clearly a more talented team than their position in the standings suggests. In a game with plenty of particularities due to their local rivalry and poor form of the two teams, it's worth backing Gran Canaria to upset the odds here.

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The big derby of the Canary Islands and one that sees both teams in a complicated moment. Tenerife are surprisingly on the verge of elimination in the Champions League after their 12 point defeat in Greece against Promitheas and just inside the playoff zone in the ACB after their loss at Zaragoza. Making matters worse Javier Beiran who is having a great comeback season after last year's physical issues, was injured in their latest match and expected to miss a couple of weeks in a very delicate period for Tenerife's goals. Gran Canaria are paying a steep price for their partecipation in the Euroleague for the first time in the history of the club as they have found themselves involved in the relegation battle in the ACB. Reinforcements were deemed necessary to avoid the drop with Cory Jefferson and Jacob Wiley coming to bring much needed athleticism to their frontcourt. With the distraction of the Euroleague finishing in less than a month and a very demanding domestic schedule in March, Gran Canaria will inevitably shift their focus in the ACB now, and much like Murcia, this is clearly a more talented team than their position in the standings suggests. In a game with plenty of particularities due to their local rivalry and poor form of the two teams, it's worth backing Gran Canaria to upset the odds here.

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Bookmakers are clearly getting carried away by Obradoiro's surpisingly solid ACB campaign and recent fine form but pricing up their home win here at barely 1.20 is dead wrong. They have not transformed suddenly into a super team and this long, 3-week break due to the World Cup Qualifiers arrived at the worse possible time for them, considering the excellent momentum they had built. Moreover it's easy to overlook that they have only a couple of wins more than their tonight's rival, Breogan.
The visitors are coming into the game after a crucial win over Murcia and have used the break to try and integrate Elijah Millsap better into their tactics and plays as the American has had limited playing time and impact so far. Breogan have been a solid rebounding and defensive team and that's where they built their first round success over Obradoiro too, out-rebounding their opponent and limiting their 3 point percentage to just 26%, so repeating a similar feat will probably be required tonight to escape with the win.
No doubt Obradoiro are the favourites here but at 4.88 it's worth paying to find out if Breogan can surprise the hosts.

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Finland is facing France for the last window of the World Cup qualifiers and probably only win will keep their hopes alive for the hosts before going in Russia for their last and decisive match. Another sold-out for the Finns playing in front of their devoted fans at the Espoo Metro Arena and a stronger motivation too, considering France has already secured qualification and first place in the group and will field a team with no NBA or Euroleague players. Still not enough to justify this kind of favouritism for Finland here, especially with Koponen and Murphy missing. Despite having no household names in their ranks, the French will present a pretty competitive squad in any case including new French sensation Theo Maledon and while coach Collet will surely grab the opportunity to test new faces and tactics, motivation shouldn't be an issue as every win counts towards a better FIBA ranking and more favourable drawing in the next World Cup. Besides I have no doubt that all new French players will be excited to showcase their talent even if they only have slim chances of making the final World Cup roster.

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Second Greek Cup semifinal and what actually should have been the final considering the quality gap between arch-rivals Panathinaikos and Olympiakos and the other two semifinalists PAOK and Kymi. Nevertheless the rivalry renews again as the two teams meet for the third time this season and the truth is neither one of them is at a particularly good shape at the moment. Despite the arrival of legendary coach Rick Pitino and Kilpatrick, Payne along with him, Panathinaikos never looked like changing gear as the usual lack of 3 point shooting, passing skills (excluding Calathes) and rebounding across the roster lowers the ceiling for a team constructed wrong from the beginning. The only bright spot for the Greens has been their home court competitiveness but that alone can't justify the odds we have here. Olympiakos may have struggled a little lately but have been without a doubt the more solid team all season, leading every single statistical category that matters except turnover ratio. In a game with a lot of particularities considering the big rivalry and that looks open to every result, it makes sense siding with Olympiakos here.

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Another loss in the Liga Endesa and another win in the Champions League for Murcia who will soon have to find a way of translating their impressive continental form into domestic wins as well if they are to avoid relegation. Breogan couldn't be a more accessible opponent in that regard. After a small resurrection back in December, the newly-promoted Galician team has suffered 4 straight losses and is the primary candidate to follow Gipuzkoa in the second division, at least in my eyes. Losing Norel to injury since the start of the season and letting Jordan go to Andorra certainly didn't help their cause while replacing Kinsey with Millsap hasn't paid off either, considering Millsap's limited impact so far. There's no denying this is a crucial game especially for Murcia, considering that a loss here will mean that they will find themselves two wins away from Breogan and with Valencia and Barcelona coming up next, this is a scenario that simply have to avoid at all costs. I have no doubt that Murcia are the better team here and will eventually find a way to turn things around and avoid relegation, hopefully starting tonight. Anything over 2.15 looks good enough to get involved here. For anyone not able to take this bet with Bet365, limit your stake to 1,5 units.

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Baskonia are hanging in there despite injuries to key players Shengelia and Granger and are just inside the playoff zone at the moment while tonight they go against one of their direct competitors Bayern, sitting one win above them in the standings. The Germans have been the biggest surprise of the Euroleague this season as coach Radonjic has built a very competitive team relying on an efficient offense and their 1.7 assists to turnovers ratio speaks volumes of the quality of their possessions. Bayern are still undefeated in the Bundesliga after 18 matches and also in great shape in the Euroleague losing only one of their last 4 games, to CSKA in Moscow after giving the Russians a big scare, leading by 5 points going into the 4th quarter. The rebounding battle is going to be the key tonight and limiting Baskonia's second chances will go a long way toward staying competitive to the end. In any case Bayern have a better chance here than the odds suggest.

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Another solid campaign for Obradoiro, currently sitting two wins above the relegation zone and dismissing early predictions that considered them one of the weakest teams and top candidates for relegation along with Gipuzkoa and Breogan. Despite a limited budget, one of the smallest in the league, Fernandez and his staff always seem to find a way of bringing excellent value for money players and emerging Vladimir Brodziansky is their latest discovery.
After 7 straight losses that dropped them second from bottom in the standings, Murcia have rolled the dice firing Juarez and signing an established, reputable coach as Sito Alonso and that may provide the psychological boost the team needed to get back on track. Despite their lack of reliable shooting and efficient playmaking that have limited them all season, this is still a competent team as their impressive 12-1 record in the Champions League demonstrates and I strongly believe that sooner or later will find a way to climb the table.
In the end this is a peculiar game between an overachieving Obradoiro and an underachieving Murcia and while I would agree that the hosts are slightly favourites here, the odds for a surprise Murcia win are just too good to ignore.