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This is the third quarterfinal of the Italian Cup (Final 8) played in a neutral venue (Rimini) and I believe Sassari are getting seriously underrated here. They have been on fire in 2017 winning 8 of the last 10 matches played and are arguably the team in the best form of all the contenders ahead of this Final 8. Avellino have had a great season so far but the timing is certainly not perfect for them. Their leader and best player Joe Ragland is still battling an injury to his back and has been used with caution in the last few weeks by coach Sacripanti although admittedly he has performed admirably. The absence of Marco Cusin though is one that may prove costly. His statistics alone fail to show his importance to Avellino. He is by far their best interior defender, their second best rebounder and an emotional leader in the dressing room. Given his absence, Fesenko will have to be really careful not get in trouble with his fouls facing Sassari's Lawal who is in the top-3 in the league in fouls drawn per minute. It's probably going to be a highly contested game and backing Sassari is the right choice here.

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Another difficult game for Venezia. They have now suffered 3 consecutive losses and the schedule isn't getting any easier with Reggiana coming to town in full strength and high spirits. Venezia are still in a state of emergency with their backcourt decimated by injuries (Tonut still missing, Filloy doubtful while McGee has just recovered). At least they should have McGee back although I seriously doubt he's ready for 30+ minutes immediately. After a great first half in Sassari that wasn't enough as they were unable to stay consistent throughout the game, Reggiana returned to victories last week against Brindisi although the biggest boost was the return of their leader Pietro Aradori from injury. I reckon the momentum is clearly with Reggiana here as Venezia don't seem able to cope with their tight schedule and all the injuries that have troubled them lately.

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Two teams that have played below expectations in their Euroleague campaign. To be fair Anadolu Efes have been decent overall with a 10-11 record and are still chasing a playoff spot but much more was expected from Perasovic's team. They have a talented, ultra athletic and versatile roster, a great coach who performed miracles last year in Baskonia, yet they have been really inconsistent all season betrayed by a poor defense ranked 5th worse in efficiency despite recent improvements. Armani Milano (7-14) have been disappointing in the Euroleague again despite a roster filled with quality players (Simon, Kalnietis, Dragic, Gentile, Raduljica just to name a few) who have failed to mesh though. Nevertheless their performances have improved lately winning 3 of their last 4 games including a historic comeback victory against Darussafaka after going down by 25 points and losing only to Real in Madrid after leading for most of the match. It's this kind of performances that may provide a huge psychological boost for a team although to be honest I'm not sure if we are actually reading too much into an otherwise dreadful campaign. Still, considering Anadolu's ups and downs and a court half empty most of the games with an average attendance of just 4000, the Abdi Ipekci arena isn't exactly the toughest place to play for a visiting team while the odds for a Milano win are more than generous.

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Key facts for the game: - I'm having trouble seeing Oldenburg as the favorites here. The Germans may be undefeated in 2017 (8-0 record in all competitions) but they haven't exactly faced any juggernauts either. Putting aside the 2500km long trip to Saratov, the Russians are probably the sternest test for Oldenburg this year. Avtodor Saratov have changed their team significantly during the course of the season. A new head coach in Vladimir Antsiferov, Josh Adams has returned from injury and Vince Hunter replaced Zubcic to create a new, more balanced line-up with results steadily improving ever since. Nick Minnerath has also recovered after missing the game against CSKA and despite the absence of Alan Makiev, Saratov should prevail today one way or another.

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Key facts for the game: - Let me be blunt. The odds for an Orlando win are ludicrously high at the moment. I can accept they have been disappointing (20-33 record, 29th in defensive efficiency and 22th in offensive efficiency) and irritatingly inconsistent most of the season but they have undeniably a good level of talent in their roster and are coached by an esteemed tactician like Frank Vogel. The Houston Rockets have arguably exceeded expectations so far with an 37-17 record lead by a superlative James Harden although since January 11th they have only gone 6-8 suffering their first slump of the season which seems far from over. It's also worth noting that the underachieving Orlando Magic have a respectable 11-17 on the road despite their poor overall record, including big wins at San Antonio, Toronto and Washington. Anything over 5.00 for an Orlando victory has great value in my opinion.

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Key facts for the game: - Very tough and physically demanding game for Venezia. Trento has been a different team after the winter break and the additions of Sutton and Marble. They have really impressed in their last two matches winning by a combined 55 points of margin against Brindisi and Cremona! Even if it's a little early for a definitive judgement this change in their set-up seems to have done the trick. Venezia has also been in good form but will likely face Trento with a seriously depleted roster. In fact both McGee and Bramos have not trained at all this week due to illness. McGee is doubtful up to this point while for Bramos there is still hope that he will be able to contribute somehow although not in perfect conditions. Of course with a crucial couple of games coming up (Tuesday in distant Latvia for the Champions League and next Sunday the derby against Reggiana) coach De Raffaele may choose not to risk either one of them. I reckon Trento will have the upper hand here considering also Venezia's precarious health state.

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Key facts for the game: - Normally I wouldn't challenge a team on a 9 match winning streak but circumstances are peculiar. Based on a top-10 defense and the resurgent backcourt duo of Dragic and Waiters the Miami Heat have shocked the entire NBA lately winning their last nine games as mentioned including impressive victories over Golden State and Houston! Then there is the flip side of the coin. This same team just two weeks ago were struggling, had an 11-30 record and were largely disappointing as expected. So the question is this. Can 2 weeks erase the first 3 months of the season? The Philadelphia Sixers on the other hand have shown a steady progress in 2017 going 10-5 in January. Tonight they will be missing Embiid again but Noel and Henderson are returning. Finally, let's not fool ourselves. Nobody is buying that the Heat have transformed from a lottery team into a playoff contender overnight. This 9 game winning streak is a statistical irregularity given the strength of the Miami Heat that may come to an abrupt end anytime, so considering also the long odds it's worth taking the risk on the Sixers tonight.

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Key facts for the game: - Last news from Greece is that Kymi has released Adegboye too after Morgan a week ago while for El Amin there is nothing official yet but my sources say he won't be available tomorrow for disciplinary reasons. Let's not forget that Kymi is in bad shape in any case, lost their last 4 games and they have struggled on the road (0-7 record). On the other hand AEK are winning their home games by an average 21,5 points of margin which coincidentally is the handicap tomorrow! Under these circumstances and despite AEK's fair share of injury problems that persist (Milosevic, Mavroeidis out), this handicap seems rather small in my eyes.

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Key facts for the game: - Two evenly matched teams with similar records, offensive and defensive efficiency rating. The Pistons are a better rebounding team and have a slightly better point differential but not much else separates the two opponents. The Pelicans employ an up-tempo style of play while the Pistons prefer a half court attack so it's going to be interesting to see what kind of a game this will be. I reckon the odds are overly affected here by the Pelicans' back to back schedule (they played in Toronto yesterday) and both Davis and the red-hot Holiday exceeded 40 minutes but I wouldn't worry so much as they are both young and shouldn't make a huge difference. Besides Toronto to Detroit is only a brief one hour flight. In any case it has been a bad week for the Pistons who suffered 3 consecutive losses and we shouldn't have any second thoughts on backing the Pelicans at such long odds.

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Key facts for the game: - Lavrio took a deep breath after last week's win at Kymi reaching 8th spot but they face a stern test today against 3rd placed AEK. The circumstances are ideal for Lavrio though. Morale is high, the gym should be packed and their newest addition Sean Evans had a further week to get integrated to the team. Moreover AEK are facing a mini injury crisis with Milosevic, Mavroeidis and Vasiliadis all unavailable, forcing coach Zdovc to employ rarely used line-ups. Beating AEK is probably asking too much from Lavrio but they should be competitive enough to avoid a double-digit defeat.

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Key facts for the game: - After their big win in Poland last week Charleroi have secured 6th place in their group and are in a probably futile hunt for 5th. In Belgium things are not as rosy as they have suffered three consecutive defeats, the last one a humiliating 86-58 in the derby against Oostende. This last sequence of results pretty much sums up how wildly inconsistent their season has been so far. January has not been a good month for Charleroi as after the departure of Bowman, they have now lost Tumba too who has decided to join Murcia leaving them in need of a new center. As for Szolnoki they may be already out of the qualification battle but that doesn't mean they have lost motivation and given up. The arrivals of Pavicevic and Andric have transformed them into a much more dangerous team and if their last couple of performances in the Champions League are anything to go by, they might surprise Charleroi tonight.

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Key facts for the game: - We have already talked about Valencia's strength. This is not the well-oiled machine we have admired last season. Still a top-4 team in Spain but only slightly better than Malaga. The reasoning for this set of odds has more to do with the fact that they have prevailed in both their encounters against Malaga this season. That doesn't mean they will have a relaxing evening though. Malaga is a different team with the return of Nedovic while they have just added Omic from Anadolu Efes who should help them down the road as their back-up center. Despite Valencia being a tough court to play, I have a feeling Malaga won't go down easily tomorrow if at all.

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Key facts for the game: - We have already talked about Valencia's strength. This is not the well-oiled machine we have admired last season. Still a top-4 team in Spain but only slightly better than Malaga. The reasoning for this set of odds has more to do with the fact that they have prevailed in both their encounters against Malaga this season. That doesn't mean they will have a relaxing evening though. Malaga is a different team with the return of Nedovic while they have just added Omic from Anadolu Efes who should help them down the road as their back-up center. Despite Valencia being a tough court to play, I have a feeling Malaga won't go down easily tomorrow if at all.

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Key facts for the game: - In a way similar to yesterday's match as after a two weeks break the teams return to action with new faces and plenty of variables. Reggiana will be missing their top player and scorer Pietro Aradori while Delroy James was released by the club but not yet replaced. There are some good news for the hosts though. Della Valle is back in action after injury and they have re-signed the influential Rimantas Kaukenas although his physical condition is a mystery as we are talking about a player of almost 40 years old who returns after several months of inactivity! For Caserta this was a much needed break to regroup after 5 straight losses and recuperate their injured players whose absence clearly affected their performance. Moreover they have added Diawara as insurance for the continuous physical struggles of Czyz. To sum up, this is a good opportunity for Caserta to bounce back as their last results have not been representative of their true strength and I reckon they can at least defend the 9 points handicap.

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Key facts for the game: - The odds have more to do with the home and away records of Kymi (5-2 at home) and Lavrio (1-5 on the road) than the real strength of the teams but this is a match with plenty of variables. In fact this is the first time Kymi will be playing without their top player Jordan Morgan who got injured and replaced by Daniel Orton. Lavrio will also be with a new big man, Sean Evans who is taking the place of the disappointing Jito Kok. That by itself is enough to create some question marks both on the physical condition-readiness of the new players and also on the degree of integration in their respective teams. All things considered the outcome of the match might be more uncertain than the odds suggest and Lavrio are worth a bet here.

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Key facts for the game: - Ludwigsburg seem to have prioritized the Champions League where they have appeared more motivated and focused with a string of excellent performances at the expense of their domestic league where they are struggling to even enter the top 8. Considering this, they are justifiably the favorites for the match against Sassari. On the other hand Sassari's rising after the signings of Bell and Lawal simply can't be overlooked. They have started the new year with 4 wins out of 5 matches only losing on the road to Champions League favorites Besiktas and this 4.87 for upsetting Ludwigsburg tomorrow is really too tempting to ignore.

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Key facts for the game: - I'm not yet sold on the strength of this Tenerife team and I reckon sooner or later will inevitably suffer a negative stretch. That being said, their results obviously can't be overlooked but with Beiran and Richotti injured and Grigonis questionable, the circumstances are not ideal to be facing a team of Barcelona's caliber. Bartzokas' men may be struggling in the Euroleague but are sitting at the top of the standings in the Liga along with their bitter rivals Real Madrid. Most importantly though the handicap is at only 3 points at the moment and certainly worth betting on.

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Key facts for the game: - The derby between AEK and Aris for 3rd place arrives at the perfect moment for the visitors. They seem to have put the difficult start of the season behind them, have recovered Kavvadas and Buckner from the injury list and are on 5 game winning streak in the league. AEK are not in a good condition right now. It's not only the 3 consecutive defeats suffered in the last 10 days with some underwhelming performances but also the obvious tension and nervousness there is among their ranks. In fact coach Zdovc's position might actually be in jeopardy in case of a new defeat. To make things worse Vasiliadis and Milosevic are doubtful for tomorrow's encounter. The momentum is clearly with Aris here and they will be smelling blood ahead of this match.

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Key facts for the game: - The derby between AEK and Aris for 3rd place arrives at the perfect moment for the visitors. They seem to have put the difficult start of the season behind them, have recovered Kavvadas and Buckner from the injury list and are on 5 game winning streak in the league. AEK are not in a good condition right now. It's not only the 3 consecutive defeats suffered in the last 10 days with some underwhelming performances but also the obvious tension and nervousness there is among their ranks. In fact coach Zdovc's position might actually be in jeopardy in case of a new defeat. To make things worse Vasiliadis and Milosevic are doubtful for tomorrow's encounter. The momentum is clearly with Aris here and they will be smelling blood ahead of this match.

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Key facts for the game: - Caserta have been in clear decline all December unable to overcome the injuries to Czyz and Bostic who have been playing sparingly or not at all on occasions. They have now suffered 3 consecutive losses, the last by a 28 points margin in Brindisi. Avellino are in good shape and steadily in the top four in the standings without big fluctuations in their performances while statistically they are superior in every major category compared to Caserta. Despite being a local derby it makes sense backing Avellino as outsiders here.