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Brescia lost again at home to Brindisi last week and continue with the known absence of Michele Vitali. Varese seem revitalized lately registering their third straight win against Pesaro and climbing out of last place in the standings, although still close to the relegation zone. Judging Varese's season as a disappointment would probably be an understatement considering the roster's quality and their playoff aspirations at the start of the season, yet they found themselves involved in the relegation battle. The momentum though is clearly with Varese as they managed to turn things around giving them a huge psychological boost moving forward. All things considered this set of odds makes no sense whatsoever especially in a league as competitive as the Lega A where excluding Milano, the rest of the teams simply don't have enormous differences between them in talent and quality. We back Varese without reservations here.

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Brescia lost again at home to Brindisi last week and continue with the known absence of Michele Vitali. Varese seem revitalized lately registering their third straight win against Pesaro and climbing out of last place in the standings, although still close to the relegation zone. Judging Varese's season as a disappointment would probably be an understatement considering the roster's quality and their playoff aspirations at the start of the season, yet they found themselves involved in the relegation battle. The momentum though is clearly with Varese as they managed to turn things around giving them a huge psychological boost moving forward. All things considered this set of odds makes no sense whatsoever especially in a league as competitive as the Lega A where excluding Milano, the rest of the teams simply don't have enormous differences between them in talent and quality. We back Varese without reservations here.

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Venezia confirmed their progress on Wednesday winning again at Avellino and registering their third straight victory. Yet they are still regarded erroneously in my opinion as clear outsiders tonight against Pistoia. Venezia will be missing Hagins to injury but in all honesty his impact has been minimal so far and with Batista making his debut I just don't consider his absence that important. Probably Pistoia's 9-1 at home influenced this set of odds and while it is true that PalaCarrara has been a fortress this season, it is also worth noting that most of those wins came against teams at the lower half of the standings or good teams like Avellino, Trento and Reggiana but who were decimated by injuries at the moment they faced Pistoia. So that's something worth pondering on. That's not to diminish in any way what coach Esposito has achieved this season in a rather mediocre roster but Venezia are really a much more more talented and deep team and I see no reason why we shouldn't be backing them again here.

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Brescia and Brindisi are two of the pleasant surprises of the Lega A with the same 10-11 record so far and the top two scorers in the league in Landry and M'Baye. It comes as no surprise that the two teams are also quite similar in most of the advanced statistics. The odds for a Brindisi victory are expectedly high because of their poor 2-8 record on the road with both wins coming against relegation candidates Pesaro and Cremona. Still, they have been like a rollercoaster on their travels capable of challenging for victory at Avellino and Milano but also losing by 36 points at Trento! Brescia will be missing Michele Vitali to injury and considering their paper thin roster depth, Lee Moore and Luca Vitali must be really careful not to get in foul trouble as there is simply no real substitute at the guards. With odds standing comfortably over 3.00 at the moment I believe it's worth our trouble backing Brindisi to win here. I avoid the handicap too because of the visitors' volatile behaviour on the road but bet on the victory alone with 2 units.

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Avellino are suffering their first slump of the season after going for a 5 month stretch in which they were remarkably consistent. In fact they have now lost 6 of their last 8 matches in all competitions despite the addition of David Logan who was supposed to be the last piece of the puzzle in an effort to challenge Milan for the championship. In truth things haven’t worked out so well at least for the time being with Avellino appearing confused with a disrupted chemistry and the absence of Cusin proving to be much more crucial than most people realised at first. Venezia have had their own black period losing 4 straight games in February but I saw a team on the rise this past week in which they defeated both Avellino and Pesaro. Venezia must defend their 4-point lead secured in the first leg but with such a small margin I expect them to aim at victory right from the start and leave calculations for later.

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Avellino are suffering their first slump of the season after going for a 5 month stretch in which they were remarkably consistent. In fact they have now lost 6 of their last 8 matches in all competitions despite the addition of David Logan who was supposed to be the last piece of the puzzle in an effort to challenge Milan for the championship. In truth things haven’t worked out so well at least for the time being with Avellino appearing confused with a disrupted chemistry and the absence of Cusin proving to be much more crucial than most people realised at first. Venezia have had their own black period losing 4 straight games in February but I saw a team on the rise this past week in which they defeated both Avellino and Pesaro. Venezia must defend their 4-point lead secured in the first leg but with such a small margin I expect them to aim at victory right from the start and leave calculations for later.

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Cantu have finally made a sensible move and brought in the experienced Charlie Recalcati to replace Bolshakov at the helm in an effort to finally bring some stability to the club. I reckon it’s a step in the right direction despite Recalcati’s age but obviously they shouldn’t expect any miracles in just a few days. This is a badly staffed team with a couple of quality players like Johnson and Dowdell but also an alarming lack of depth across the roster which is made worse tonight with the absence of Darden. Cantu have suffered 5 defeats in their last 6 matches and Desio, a court that was once a fortress, has now been conquered 5 times already in the course of the season. Reggiana have paid dearly for the injury crisis that hit them at the start of 2017 suffering 4 straight losses and dropping to 7th place in the standings but this is not representative of the team’s real strength. Moreover they corrected a couple of bad transfer summer moves replacing both Lesic and James who clearly disappointed with the highly-promising Jalen Reynolds and the experienced Jawad Williams. I believe it’s now a matter of time before they start climbing the standings again. Despite Recalcati’s arrival may galvanize Cantu, the difference in talent and depth between the two teams seems too much to overcome. I’d be surprised if Reggiana slips again tonight.

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With the newest additions of Newley and Mavrokefalidis, AEK have completed another 2 player replacements, 4 in total since the start of the season. It’s no wonder they haven’t been able to find any chemistry so far. This is a talented but really confused team. Lately they have struggled on their travels winning just 1 of their last 5 matches in the Greek league (a tightly contested victory at Lavrio) although it has been an admittedly tough schedule. More importantly though they are caught in the middle of their crucial matchup against Monaco for the Champions League and with 3rd place almost secured in the A1, the focus will inevitably be in the decisive road game in France. Promitheas are probably in their best shape since the start of the season riding a run of 4 wins in the last 5 matches while they have usually been really competitive in front of their fans. I can see them at least defending the handicap here.

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I have to say I'm a little surprised by the opening odds. Valencia have really upped their game these last two months going on 10-1 run in 2017 losing only in Madrid to Real and they present themselves in this semifinal in great shape after beating comfortably Gran Canaria yesterday. Barcelona have struggled to find any consistency amidst all the injuries they have suffered throughout the season. In their last 10 games they have lost 7 while yesterday's win over Malaga came only after an impressive second half that erased their 5-point deficit in what was a really disappointing first half for them, proving once more the lack of continuity in their performance. It's also worth mentioning that Barcelona's board have fined players and coach earlier last week for poor performances but judging by their poor showing and home defeat to Galatasaray in the next game, it probably didn't help matters a lot! Doellman, Oleson and Navarro remain unavailable for tonight. We should have no hesitation backing Valencia here as long as they remain outsiders.

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This is the third quarterfinal of the Italian Cup (Final 8) played in a neutral venue (Rimini) and I believe Sassari are getting seriously underrated here. They have been on fire in 2017 winning 8 of the last 10 matches played and are arguably the team in the best form of all the contenders ahead of this Final 8. Avellino have had a great season so far but the timing is certainly not perfect for them. Their leader and best player Joe Ragland is still battling an injury to his back and has been used with caution in the last few weeks by coach Sacripanti although admittedly he has performed admirably. The absence of Marco Cusin though is one that may prove costly. His statistics alone fail to show his importance to Avellino. He is by far their best interior defender, their second best rebounder and an emotional leader in the dressing room. Given his absence, Fesenko will have to be really careful not get in trouble with his fouls facing Sassari's Lawal who is in the top-3 in the league in fouls drawn per minute. It's probably going to be a highly contested game and backing Sassari is the right choice here.

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Another difficult game for Venezia. They have now suffered 3 consecutive losses and the schedule isn't getting any easier with Reggiana coming to town in full strength and high spirits. Venezia are still in a state of emergency with their backcourt decimated by injuries (Tonut still missing, Filloy doubtful while McGee has just recovered). At least they should have McGee back although I seriously doubt he's ready for 30+ minutes immediately. After a great first half in Sassari that wasn't enough as they were unable to stay consistent throughout the game, Reggiana returned to victories last week against Brindisi although the biggest boost was the return of their leader Pietro Aradori from injury. I reckon the momentum is clearly with Reggiana here as Venezia don't seem able to cope with their tight schedule and all the injuries that have troubled them lately.

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Two teams that have played below expectations in their Euroleague campaign. To be fair Anadolu Efes have been decent overall with a 10-11 record and are still chasing a playoff spot but much more was expected from Perasovic's team. They have a talented, ultra athletic and versatile roster, a great coach who performed miracles last year in Baskonia, yet they have been really inconsistent all season betrayed by a poor defense ranked 5th worse in efficiency despite recent improvements. Armani Milano (7-14) have been disappointing in the Euroleague again despite a roster filled with quality players (Simon, Kalnietis, Dragic, Gentile, Raduljica just to name a few) who have failed to mesh though. Nevertheless their performances have improved lately winning 3 of their last 4 games including a historic comeback victory against Darussafaka after going down by 25 points and losing only to Real in Madrid after leading for most of the match. It's this kind of performances that may provide a huge psychological boost for a team although to be honest I'm not sure if we are actually reading too much into an otherwise dreadful campaign. Still, considering Anadolu's ups and downs and a court half empty most of the games with an average attendance of just 4000, the Abdi Ipekci arena isn't exactly the toughest place to play for a visiting team while the odds for a Milano win are more than generous.

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Key facts for the game: - I'm having trouble seeing Oldenburg as the favorites here. The Germans may be undefeated in 2017 (8-0 record in all competitions) but they haven't exactly faced any juggernauts either. Putting aside the 2500km long trip to Saratov, the Russians are probably the sternest test for Oldenburg this year. Avtodor Saratov have changed their team significantly during the course of the season. A new head coach in Vladimir Antsiferov, Josh Adams has returned from injury and Vince Hunter replaced Zubcic to create a new, more balanced line-up with results steadily improving ever since. Nick Minnerath has also recovered after missing the game against CSKA and despite the absence of Alan Makiev, Saratov should prevail today one way or another.

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Key facts for the game: - Let me be blunt. The odds for an Orlando win are ludicrously high at the moment. I can accept they have been disappointing (20-33 record, 29th in defensive efficiency and 22th in offensive efficiency) and irritatingly inconsistent most of the season but they have undeniably a good level of talent in their roster and are coached by an esteemed tactician like Frank Vogel. The Houston Rockets have arguably exceeded expectations so far with an 37-17 record lead by a superlative James Harden although since January 11th they have only gone 6-8 suffering their first slump of the season which seems far from over. It's also worth noting that the underachieving Orlando Magic have a respectable 11-17 on the road despite their poor overall record, including big wins at San Antonio, Toronto and Washington. Anything over 5.00 for an Orlando victory has great value in my opinion.

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Key facts for the game: - Very tough and physically demanding game for Venezia. Trento has been a different team after the winter break and the additions of Sutton and Marble. They have really impressed in their last two matches winning by a combined 55 points of margin against Brindisi and Cremona! Even if it's a little early for a definitive judgement this change in their set-up seems to have done the trick. Venezia has also been in good form but will likely face Trento with a seriously depleted roster. In fact both McGee and Bramos have not trained at all this week due to illness. McGee is doubtful up to this point while for Bramos there is still hope that he will be able to contribute somehow although not in perfect conditions. Of course with a crucial couple of games coming up (Tuesday in distant Latvia for the Champions League and next Sunday the derby against Reggiana) coach De Raffaele may choose not to risk either one of them. I reckon Trento will have the upper hand here considering also Venezia's precarious health state.

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Key facts for the game: - Normally I wouldn't challenge a team on a 9 match winning streak but circumstances are peculiar. Based on a top-10 defense and the resurgent backcourt duo of Dragic and Waiters the Miami Heat have shocked the entire NBA lately winning their last nine games as mentioned including impressive victories over Golden State and Houston! Then there is the flip side of the coin. This same team just two weeks ago were struggling, had an 11-30 record and were largely disappointing as expected. So the question is this. Can 2 weeks erase the first 3 months of the season? The Philadelphia Sixers on the other hand have shown a steady progress in 2017 going 10-5 in January. Tonight they will be missing Embiid again but Noel and Henderson are returning. Finally, let's not fool ourselves. Nobody is buying that the Heat have transformed from a lottery team into a playoff contender overnight. This 9 game winning streak is a statistical irregularity given the strength of the Miami Heat that may come to an abrupt end anytime, so considering also the long odds it's worth taking the risk on the Sixers tonight.

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Key facts for the game: - Last news from Greece is that Kymi has released Adegboye too after Morgan a week ago while for El Amin there is nothing official yet but my sources say he won't be available tomorrow for disciplinary reasons. Let's not forget that Kymi is in bad shape in any case, lost their last 4 games and they have struggled on the road (0-7 record). On the other hand AEK are winning their home games by an average 21,5 points of margin which coincidentally is the handicap tomorrow! Under these circumstances and despite AEK's fair share of injury problems that persist (Milosevic, Mavroeidis out), this handicap seems rather small in my eyes.

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Key facts for the game: - Two evenly matched teams with similar records, offensive and defensive efficiency rating. The Pistons are a better rebounding team and have a slightly better point differential but not much else separates the two opponents. The Pelicans employ an up-tempo style of play while the Pistons prefer a half court attack so it's going to be interesting to see what kind of a game this will be. I reckon the odds are overly affected here by the Pelicans' back to back schedule (they played in Toronto yesterday) and both Davis and the red-hot Holiday exceeded 40 minutes but I wouldn't worry so much as they are both young and shouldn't make a huge difference. Besides Toronto to Detroit is only a brief one hour flight. In any case it has been a bad week for the Pistons who suffered 3 consecutive losses and we shouldn't have any second thoughts on backing the Pelicans at such long odds.

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Key facts for the game: - Lavrio took a deep breath after last week's win at Kymi reaching 8th spot but they face a stern test today against 3rd placed AEK. The circumstances are ideal for Lavrio though. Morale is high, the gym should be packed and their newest addition Sean Evans had a further week to get integrated to the team. Moreover AEK are facing a mini injury crisis with Milosevic, Mavroeidis and Vasiliadis all unavailable, forcing coach Zdovc to employ rarely used line-ups. Beating AEK is probably asking too much from Lavrio but they should be competitive enough to avoid a double-digit defeat.

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Key facts for the game: - After their big win in Poland last week Charleroi have secured 6th place in their group and are in a probably futile hunt for 5th. In Belgium things are not as rosy as they have suffered three consecutive defeats, the last one a humiliating 86-58 in the derby against Oostende. This last sequence of results pretty much sums up how wildly inconsistent their season has been so far. January has not been a good month for Charleroi as after the departure of Bowman, they have now lost Tumba too who has decided to join Murcia leaving them in need of a new center. As for Szolnoki they may be already out of the qualification battle but that doesn't mean they have lost motivation and given up. The arrivals of Pavicevic and Andric have transformed them into a much more dangerous team and if their last couple of performances in the Champions League are anything to go by, they might surprise Charleroi tonight.