I do not have nothing to say about the previous month the result say it all. I was prepared for that outcome, but I will be better prepared for the future. The US open series did not give us enough value bets and we hope to get the best from the remaining US open. After that there is plenty of action in Davis cup and a lot of crucial clashes. There are four events from the ATP250 category and we will be focused there and in some of the Challenger series. Thank you that stayed with me and lets hope for nice and positive month!
Last month was very rough. We had as usual good and not that good streaks and in the end of it we were break even, which overall is positive. We say goodbye to the grass court season and had some good shots on the clay. Next week is the last event on clay from the ATP schedule this year and we will squeeze the value from it. The US open series are under way in the moment, but there is nothing to mention so far, because John Isner is dominating the event in Atlanta and most probable will clinch the title. Nadal is back on track and for sure there is a lot of come with the two ATP1000 event this month. Thank you all that stay with me and have no hesitation that the next green month is coming! Wish you all the best!
June was strange. I did not find a lot of valuable matches on the grass, which is not typical. The number of tips was rather low, but still produced 4 units which in my opinion is good results. The first six months of 2015 are in the history with 228 tips +31 Units and Yield 10.42 %. This is the yield which I am focused in holding in long ruin. The Wimbledon is under way and I must say that it is nearly the beginning and I am going to starts with few nice value bets from the first of July. Happy July Morning! Thank you that you all stick around with me and I will continue with the good work in this month as well!
I am going to start with a quote from my previous month review “The first red month is a fact, but the strategy was right and I have no doubts that in my we will bounce back” . Roland Garros is waiting for his new champion. We did managed to get a nice value in April, but still did not take full advantage from Berdych, who managed to lose in the only match where I could not imagine to lose. The grass season is under way and I wait to see the trends and the way how the players will adjust. That is way in the first week of June I keep the number of tips low. Usually the green tennis month is full with nice picks and I think the tournaments before Wimbledon will have a lot to give. Thank you to all that stayed with me and lets bash the bookies!
The tournament of true is about to start and the crown of Nadal has never been so shaky. Djokovic is in superb form, I must say. He won all of his matches on clay and no matter of some small hesitation against lighter opponent Nole is ready fro the title and it looks almost impossible to be stopped. He has all of the abilities and the necessary abilities and only need the weather to be with him. Something more he will meet eventually Nadal on the quarter finals, which is more than good for the Serbian. Nadal needs to do a lot of adjustments and to hope on a dry sunny day to stand a chance against Djokovic. This is the first year after 2005 when Nadal has so many losses before Roland Garros. This is why the odd for the Spaniard to defend his title is around 4.50. I do not see value in it mostly because in this half is also Djokovic and lest do not forget G.Dimitrov, who is having the talent to beat any of those two competitors( he has already beat N.Djokovic and a lot of close matches against Nadal on clay).
The opponent of winner of the previous mentioned quarter will be Murray or Ferrer. Both of them have a lot of matches and in the H2H Murray is leading with 9-6 with all of the matches played on clay are wins for Ferrer. It is true that Murray level up his performance on clay significantly this year and won his maiden clay court title along with Masters title on clay, but to beat Djokovic/Nadal on the semifinals and Ferrer on the quarter final seems slightly unlikely and on odds around 10 to clinch the title it is simply does not have any value.
The third quarter will be fascinating. The favorites here are T.Berdych and K.Nishikori. The Japanese showed his core on clay in the past two seasons and the Czech is solid as a rock most of the times. In the same the field in this quarter is one of the roughest, which I have ever seen. Here are F.Fognini, P.Kohlschreiber, P.Andujar, F.Lopez, J-W. Tsonga, J.Monaco, F.Delbonis, R.Bautista – Agut, F.Verdasco and T.Bellucci. All of them can be a real treat to the duo Berdych and Nishikori. So the eventual semifinalist is fairly unknown.
The last quarter is the one that immediately drew my attention. In her the edge of Federer is simply amazing. As I am looking at the field only Monfils is competitive enough to stop the Swiss to the quarter final, but eh must reached there before that and Monfils is rather unpredictable and unreliable so I think Federer will easy reached the quarter final. There he will most likely meet his countryman S.Wawrinka, but I am not quite sure in it, especially when they are names like the last year semifinalist E.Gulbis, M.Klizan and the man that stopped last year Wawrinka the in form Spaniard G.Garcia – Lopez.
All in all I do see a clear path for Federer to the final, because if Berdych/Nishikori faced the Swiss it will be very harsh to play against the Swiss in front of the excited French crowd. So I think it worth the punt to back Federer to win the French open @ 12.00 EW in Bet365 with 1.5 units stake on every way.
My second call will be for the in the third quarter where I expect to names to bring a big upset and stand a chance to reached the semifinals. I back F.Fognini or J.Monaco to win the third quarter. Fognini is solid as a rock and reached the third round here for five years in a row and has one quarter final. Monaco has reached twice the R16 and he showed some signs of improvement. There are no odds represented so, but consider that odds higher than 10 for Fognini and higher than 15 for Monaco are must bet with 1 unit tops. Pinnacl and Bet365 usually will open later this evening.
Well I could not say many about the women competition. As usual everything depends from the mood of Serena Williams. Sharapova got back on track. Halep is usual suspect for any clay court event. Kvitova showed devastating form and Suarez – Navarro is the master of consistency this season. I do not see any value in the moment from the represented odds and will stick with single matches. Good luck to everybody.
April was not merciful to us. Thee clay court season started with great expectations, but due some injuries and draws they were not that many real value bets. On the clay the mental strength and the consistence is much more important than on all other surfaces and mental resistance of our choices was the key factor in April. I rarely go for more than 1.5 on high odds, but simply the value for backing up Dzumhur in Casablanca’s semifinals was enormous. The Bosnian managed to lose the match after leading with a set and a break in the second(4-3). Something more he did not won a single game till the end. At the last few days of April Tipsarevic was serving for the match and failed to win versus V.Estrella. It seems the start of May should be on events which are starting in May, otherwise the poor streak will continue as today S.Giraldo was leading with 8-0 in the games and find the way to lose the match. The first red month is a fact, but the strategy was right and I have no doubts that in my we will bounce back. The big event in Madrid and the two most prestige events on clay ATP Rome and Roland Garros will bring the best of the best and for sure will find a lot of valuable choice. Thank you all for the support and lets hope that this month the turn arounds will be in our favour! Wish you all the best!
I really have less expectation for March, because of the two big events in Indian Wells and Miami. The problem with this events is that most of the top players are fully focused and it is pretty harsh to find a value. Moreover the Challenger series are limited and in Indian Wells many unknown names had their chances in the qualifications, because of the Davis cup, which is very important for players ranked below 100 spot. Eventually the month ended in green and I am ok with it. April is the month with which the clay court season is going to be opened. Most of the years by that time there is plenty of matches with valuable choices, because the clay is the surface on which everyone can play. I think the month will be full with action and I will focus on the clay events because the hard court Challenger will be with low priority due the questionable motivation of the players and the less familiar names which will take part in them. Thank you for all of your support!
The month was quite exiting with a lot of action and I like to see that every green month is a good month and I standing behind those words. This month offer us a lot of value bets and I we did hesitate to go for them. It was very important that we took advantage of the draw at Rio and finished strong with the late stages in Dubai and Acapulco. They were a lot of close shaves this month but it is quite normal for the tennis market. In the same time as usual we did not miss a huge choke, like Fucsovics vs Gimeno – Traver. Fucsovics was leading a set and a break in the second. The odds for win of Fucsovics were around 1.10 and still he managed to lose.
For March the Davis cup is under way, but most of the tops players will be absent and most likely the action will be limited till the Indian Wells and Santiago Challenger. After that Miami is coming. The two “small Slams” are involving almost whole elite and for sure they will be some juicy odds. Serena Williams is getting back on Indian Wells after wining it in 2001 and we will se how it is going to work. Thank you all for the support!
January is over. I must say that I am glad with the results. January is one of the hardest months, if it is not the hardest to make profit from it, but we did. The main factor is the new season and difficult in finding trends in the form of the players. Still I am used with the hard task and my detailed view of the matches ends with +11.81% after 34 picks which is good job. We squeezed the value from most of the represented opportunities. February is coming and it is full with interesting events, including ATP Rotterdam and Dubai open, where all of the elite will put together. I really loves the mix between indoors courts in Europe and clay court events in South America. From the Challenger events I will be focused on Santo Domingo Challenger, which will start on the ninth of February. Off course we will pain attention to all events and where there is a nice price do not have any hesitation that we will be there. Thank you for you support!