Another month in the red at least for the moment (Rams pick to make the playoffs is pending). I decided to take three weeks off after the end of Giancarlo Stanton experiment. That was to get a new perspective over the NCAA and NFL. 4-1 was a good return to action.
Unlike previous years I'm not drooling over November. Yes, there's a game (almost) every day but I cant's understand what the hell is happening in MAC so I won't bet on midweek action. And will be more selective than usual during the weekends.
September was not a month to remember. Not for positive reasons at least. All because of Giancarlo Stanton...
When you have a 50-HR hitter priced at 3.50 to hit a HR you should go all in, right? Wrong. Playing in two of the best ballparks for HRs he went on a terrible slump. Then bookies pulled off the odds for the series in Arizona where he had two HRs in three games and offered them back for the final week of the season. When he had two HRs in a game I wasn't able to bet and then went on another dry streak...
His slump made a negative impact on my bank and wiped away the fun. So when the fun ends - stop. That's what I'll do. I don't know for how long. A week, two or a month.., But for the time being I'll lick my wounds.
August was another month I largely abstained from betting. For one simple reason: I hate what MLB did this year with the juiced balls that go over the fence in a crazy rate and cause pitchers blisters, early exits and an extended stint on the DL.
Still it wasn't a bad month with a 24.8% yield. And if Michael Taylor ever learns how to handle a sinking line drive and not boot it with the heel of his glove I could've had another winning tip instead of a void.
September marks the expansion of MLB rosters and with a maximum of 40 players available games often turn into a farce. Therefore I will once again stay away from MLB for most of the time and concentrate on NCAA and NFL. It's gridiron time, my favorite part of the uear!
A month with modest activity. A month that started very bleak but ended positively. After the All-Star game I had a long and thorough evaluation of what I did so far in the season. And decided to concentrate mostly on hits and runs instead of the outcome of the games. Which proved a good decision. What followed was a 7-1 run (I could've been perfect if the Mets infield had the slightest ability to field ground balls) and a 8.38 units yield.
However August has been difficult so far. Not in terms of results but in terms of selection. For almost two weeks I couldn't find a single match I like to bet. There are just two weeks until the expansion of the rosters from 25 to 40 players on September 1st (when the season becomes a tryout for most of the teams) so maybe I'll try to make up for the lost time.
An incredibly awful month. Thankfuly George Springer saved some of my dignity with his home run...
Nothing went right in June. Except one tip where I decided to gamble a little, all of the others where absolutely in sync with the stats and tendencies. To no avail...
I was seriously considering a couple of times to stop and write off the season but will continue for at least one more week. I wait for the All-Star break to evaluate what is going on in MLB and to alter the approach if necessary.
I started this with high expectations and the first month proved quite successful. 13-5-6 with a 5.92 profit, 12.6% yield is what I was looking for.
If you follow my tips I'll give some explanations about the strategy:
1. I rarely bet the home/away. When I'm convinced a team will win I prefer the -1 AH because of the odds. In case of a one-run win it will return the stake and if the team wins by two or more - the profit is higher.
2. Betting on the over I avoid the half-runs prefering the even numbers. Because in case of extra innings the stats shows that odd totals are the usual outcome.
3. Betting on team score (runs, hits) I try to avoid home teams. Because they are not guaranteed to have nine innings of offense (if home team is winning after top of the ninth the game ends).
I am ready to start a new chapter. Like Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders I am going from NFL to MLB! Well not as a professional athlete but as a tipster.
I was in New York in 2006 and bought a $10 behind the first base ticket for the old Shea Stadium. That day Mets beat the Dodgers 7-0. Jose Valentin hit a home run. Jose Reyes touched 'em all for an inside the parker and I instantly became a fan. A few years ago as a joke I started giving tips to a friend and quickly realised that the success rate is very good.
I'm a big Mets fan but usually avoid betting on their games. I hate Phillies and Nationals (what a surprise) and I think that the DH rule must be abolished.
I know I'll have a good time and hope you'll find success too.
The month started well ended on a down note but still in the green. This bowl season turned out to be much more defensive than the previous two and two of my bets looked really stupid. And in the final week I decided to up the ante but that didn't bring the expected results.
NCAA season is over (I don't bet on semi-pro teams playing against students) and the NFL playoffs are not my cup of tea. I will place a bet or two each week but I think +49 is a good profit for the season.
A month that started badly finished with a bang. 25.28 U profit, 41.79% yield fell just short of my best month ever. Yes, more or less it was a product of a few bookie mistakes but there's one thing i regret - not being more aggressive in the final NCAA weekend of the month. History shows that Thanksgiving weekend is usually full of high scoring affairs but I bet just two games last Saturday.