What a pity... What could have been a fantastic month, actually turned into a nightmare. Call it bad luck, call it variance, the truth of the matter is that we were heavily penalized by it last month. Khimki, Olimpija, Neptunas, Nanterre and Lietkabelis all lost their respective matches in the last few seconds either by not scoring their last shot or making some silly turnover. Especially Nanterre, well no other way to put it other than they simply committed suicide! No professional team is permitted to lose a match this way.
In the end it was a month that excluding Zalgiris's overtime victory, pretty much anything that could go wrong, actually went wrong for us and unfortunately it's one of the months that can really define a whole season. Consider this. If all 5 bets were won which could have easily been the case, we would looking at our best month ever with over 20 units of profit! If just one of them had landed we would have still ended October in green. That's a hard pill to swallow...
No need to get overly frustrated though. Just keep one thing in mind. The wheel turns. Form and luck are temporary, skill is permanent. We will get them next time.
Okay, some updates. You may remember that back in my 2017 review I mentioned I was considering droping the NBA from the competitions we are involved in and replacing it with the Italian Serie A2. Well, that plan is still a future possibility but for the time being we remain as we were. The reason is simple. During the summer I have been working on making some adjustments and tweaks in my selection process and formulas especially for the NBA and I'm hopeful those will pay off. Not so much in terms of immediate profit of course which we can't control but mostly regarding the number of bets we get from the NBA. So something like 5-6 bets/month would suffice to keep me involved. The following 2-3 months will probably determine a lot in that regard.
A very busy month ahead so time to get back to work! I will talk to you again soon guys.
Hello guys! A new month, a new season and as you have noticed a new site. Unfortunately some technical difficulties prevented us from going live a little sooner and not everything is fully operational yet but I'm sure in the next few days everything will be sorted out. I will keep this very brief as this a hectic period and I'm having some connectivity issues as well but hopefully will get a chance of giving you an overall update by the end of the month or early November.
Not a memorable month but still a positive one considering all the misadventures we had to endure during May.
But let me explain. Firstly as I have already mentioned, our long-term bet with Baskonia was ruined by Granger's injury. Then despite winning both our bets on Promitheas, it was really a small miracle if you think that 3 key-players of Promitheas (Ellis, Milosevic and Hall) were discarded a few moments before the start of the match for various last-minute physical discomforts! And finally two really frustrating games lost backing Avellino. Don't get me wrong. I would have still made the exact same choices and especially the second game's closing odds at Pinnacle (2.28) pretty much tells the whole truth. We backed them at 2.85 so we again secured huge value with our bet but Avellino were simply unrecognizable that day. In the first game when Avellino performed much better and came close at upsetting Trento, we were unfortunately penalized by the officiating style of the referees who permitted an over-aggressive game from Trento.Under all these circumstances I'm even a little surprised we managed to escape with another 3 units of profit for the month!
There are only a few playoff games in Spain, Italy and Greece left for June, so now it's a good time to talk about the future schedule and plans.
Usually the summer break would coincide with the end of these playoffs but extraordinarily this year there will be a window of games (June 28 - July 2) for the World Cup 2019 Qualifiers. In case you don't remember the last couple of windows for the same competition proved extremely profitable for us with all 5 bets landing, so hopefully we will get a few more winners during the upcoming windows.
Here are the previous results:
24/11/2017 - Netherlands(@2.75) - Croatia 68-61 WON (+3.50u)
26/11/2017 - Ukraine - Turkey(@3.85) 60-67 WON (+4.20u)
27/11/2017 - Finland - Czech Rep.(@2.62) 56-64 WON (+3.24u)
25/02/2018 - Georgia - Germany(-firstname.lastname@example.org) 77-87 WON (+1.66u)
25/02/2018 - Iceland(@3.22) - Czech Rep. 76-75 WON (+3.33u)
For the rest of the summer we will be inactive and then we return again for another window of games (13-17 September) for the World Cup 2019 Qualifiers which practically marks the start of the new season for us. The rest of the competitions we are involved in start roughly around the end of September-start of October but there are no official schedules announced yet.
To sum everything up here are the dates to keep in mind:
- (June 28 - July 2) World Cup 2019 Qualifiers
- (September 13-17) World Cup 2019 Qualifiers
- End of September-start of October (Start of season 2018-19)
That's all from me for the time being. Obviously I can't possibly know yet how many picks there will be during June and the upcoming windows for the World Cup 2019 Qualifiers but in any case we will be here to take advantage of any opportunities.
I will get back to you guys around mid-September to give you an update of the new season schedule and plans.
Have an amazing summer!
April was a fine month to get us back on track after a poor March, although our last pick did leave a bitter taste in my mouth if I'm being honest. Milano at their worst performance of the season while at the same time Pesaro were simply flawless. In fact the result provoked plenty of rumours in Italy that maybe Milano simply gave the game away to Pesaro and while everything remains speculation at this point, there was definitely something strange in the way Milano approached the game both mentally and tactically. Anyway no need to cry over spilt milk. We move on. It goes without saying that we will not be backing Milano again anytime soon.
Our long-term bet unfortunately didn't pay off. Practically every chance Baskonia had of eliminating Fenerbahce was ruined by Jayson Granger's injury just before the start of the series considering he is simply irreplaceable for this team for what he brings at both ends of the floor. Obviously I would have never backed Baskonia had I known they would have to play all the crucial playoff games without him. A pity but this is one of the risks involved with every long-term bet.
May is already upon us and with the schedule getting thinner with every passing day, I don't expect a very busy month. Most of the times the bookies price late season and playoff games quite accurately but you never know. In any case we will be here to take advantage of any market inefficiencies. I will talk to you soon guys!
A poor month obviously but a bad schedule as well. Once or twice every year there are these periods when either the match-ups or the odds are simply inadequate for betting and in these cases my tactic has always been that of restraint and limited activity. No sense in taking unnecessary risks.
March marks also our first negative month since May of last year and it was to be expected at some point after a very successful and profitable period that lasted 6 months and earned us a little over 47 units. We would all want every month to end in green of course but sports betting, like many other things in life, works in circles. Bad runs follow good runs and vice versa. The only thing that matters ultimately is making a long-term profit and we should never lose sight of that goal.
Luckily the fantastic February we have had means we are still left with a healthy 14 units of profit for 2018 and will be looking to build on that. The key now is limiting losses as much as possible while the negative streak lasts and have no doubt that better days will return.
On a positive note regarding our long-term bet, Baskonia defeated Maccabi in a crucial game last week which means the spanish team has now secured a place in the playoffs and are waiting to find out their opponent. Still with a good chance of grabbing 6th place and avoiding both CSKA and Fenerbahce in the quarter finals but we will see how the last round of the Euroleague plays out this week.
Take care guys and I will keep you updated.
Well, an amazing month for us obviously with 17 units of profit and a good base to build upon for the rest of 2018. While bets in the higher odds range produced only a tiny 0,33 units with 1 out of 4 landing, the handicap bets were a totally different story. In fact we had a perfect 7/7 in February which produced almost all of our profit for the month.
The FIBA World Cup Qualifiers at the end of the month provided us again with two excellent value bets with Germany and Iceland and in truth we could have had another couple with Romania vs Italy and Finland vs Bulgaria (backing the visitors in both cases) but odds were very sensitive for Bulgaria's win crashing very quickly from the initial 3.42 at Pinnacle when liquidity was really limited while in Italy's case I was a little hesitant after Romania's huge wins over Netherlands and especially Croatia. In the end Bulgaria lost, Italy won comfortably, so luckily we didn't miss out on a huge profit eventually. There were will be another window of World Cup Qualifiers in the summer with Euroleague and NBA players probably joining their national teams this time, creating new balances yet again but looking forward to it and we will see if we can find a few bets then as well.
Have a great month guys and I will talk to you soon!
A solid if unremarkable month to start 2018. As you may have guessed by the small number of picks, January has been quite rough to find enough value bets. A couple of picks I was considering were discarded at the last moment because of incomplete or conflicting information regarding the health status of some key players and ultimately it was the right move. No point taking unnecessary risks.
We have had a couple of more bets from the italian Serie A2 last month and it seems we will have more coming especially after the summer and the start of the season 2018/19. Unfortunately Ferrara was a no-show against Fortitudo Bologna while Forli have practically thrown away a game they controlled from the start taking a big lead of 16 points early (28-44), then seeing the lead slowly evaporate and entering the final minutes tied when a few poor decisions cost them dearly in the end. A pity.
Not much else to report. Hopefully February will present more betting opportunities for us.
Here we are then for the 2017 review. Overall it was clearly an excellent year exceeding 2016 in all aspects.
A biggest profit made with 51,44 units to 36,31 in 2016, a better yield 25,03% to 20,23% and a highest number of picks 97 to 85, which is a step in the right direction if you ask me, but more on this subject shortly.
MAIN TAKEAWAYS FROM 2017
We had just one negative month in 2017 back in May with 5 units lost but the lack of betting opportunities due to the light schedule certainly played a part to this outcome as there were just 3 picks that month. More importantly though, looking at the profit chart in the stats tab, the biggest drawdown in our bankroll at any point during 2017 (but also if we include 2016) was a little more than 10 units while the longest losing streak was just 5 bets. Not going over those 10 units at any point during the last 2 years considering also that we are dealing mostly with longer odds is a remarkable achievement in my opinion. It is also not a fluke or at the very least not entirely. The point of being extremely selective with my picks is to secure as big a value as possible with every single one of them and have absolutely no doubt about them. The end result is that we simply have much higher probabilities of winning these bets than the odds suggest.
Having said that, we also have to be realistic. At some point in the future, maybe next month, maybe later in 2018 or perhaps next year we will go lower than that. It is inevitable, although if I prove myself wrong I wouldn't mind too much! How much lower in term of units you may ask. Tough to tell with confidence really. While I have been keeping a detailed personal record of my bets for the last several years, my strategy and selection process have changed significantly over time and were eventually refined to the point that they are today, so I'm afraid looking at past results wouldn't provide much help now.
This very small drawdown will probably have some of you wondering about the optimal staking system for this service and we will get into that part in a moment.
It cannot be denied that the bookies are sharper now than they were 5-10 years ago. They have really upped their game especially in the most famous leagues like the NBA which attract the most interest and obviously huge amounts of money. Value bets are getting really hard to find nowadays and it's not a coincidence I have posted just 13 NBA picks in the last 2 years! They still made a profit of around 5,5 units during this period despite only 4 of those landing but considering the extremely small number of bets I was wondering whether it's still worth the investment in time, studying and researching this league for bets or not. For sure I will be monitoring the situation very carefully until the end of the current season in June and dropping the NBA from the list of the competitions I am betting on for the season 2018-19 is not to be excluded at this point.
Handicap bets performance
Just a clarification really. If you notice in the statistics tab, the handicap bets seem to be underachieving and not so profitable as the other bets but this is a little misleading actually for one simple reason. The straight win bets in the same range of odds (typically around 1.70-2.15) are not included in the Asian Handicap results because they are not accounted as -0.5 handicap bets which they actually are. It's exactly the same as football if you are familiar. The straight win bet and the asian handicap -0.5 bet is practically the same thing. That creates the whole confusion.
So probably you could get a more accurate reading of the handicaps performance by looking at the odds range or stake size (2.00-3.00) statistics instead.
Staking system and alternatives for a bigger profit
Okay, time to talk about stakes. Let me just say right away that I will be keeping the same stakes for 2018 and beyond, so what I have written in my Biography tab right from the start, still stands:
'' I will be using 1 to 1,5 units most of the times when betting on odds over 3.00 and 2 to 3 units on handicaps and I would suggest sticking to these stakes especially if you are risk-averse".
There are 2 reasons for this.
The first one is that I want to maintain a consistent approach and absolute transparency so that it can easy for everyone to compare one year with another. So for example if I decided to double my stakes for this year I could have a worse year than 2016 or 2017 as far as results are concerned and still make a bigger profit and it is this kind of confusion that I want to avoid.
The second reason is that this is a relatively conservative staking system that everyone can follow without having to worry too much about losing streaks and risks.
Now having said that, if you want to maximise profit you can certainly go more aggressive with your stakes while accepting at the same time the bigger risk involved with this. How much more aggressive? If you ask me, you could easily go 50% more both on the handicap and straight win bets. So assuming you have a bankroll of 100 units, instead of 3 units/pick for the handicap bets you can use 4,5 units/pick and instead of 1-1,5 units/pick for longer odds bets, you can use 1,5-2,25 units/pick respectively. That's entirely up to you and what percentage of your betting bank you are comfortable risking during the inevitable losing streaks. So for example would losing 30 or 40 units during a bad period affect you in any way when placing your next bet? Personally I prefer to have some peace of mind and avoid any dramas despite consciously "sacrificing" some profit in the process. But as I said, it really depends on your risk profile and it's a decision you have to make for yourself ultimately.
CHANGES FOR 2018:
Number of picks
We have had 97 picks for 2017 in comparison to 85 in 2016 and my intention is to at least match that number in 2018 but preferably to go a little higher. So something around 100-120 would be ideal in my opinion. Considering there are seldom any international competitions in summer this means that we would average around 13-14 picks/month.
Make no mistake though. My betting philosophy remains the same. My selection process also. So you can rest assured that I am not going to force anything just to increase the number of picks. If there are no value bets to take, well, a resounding "no bet" from me is always a choice even if it means taking less bets than planned. Securing good value with every single pick is non-negotiable as far as I am concerned.
The reasoning behind my intention of slightly increasing the number of picks? Well, 2 reasons actually:
1. Some changes in my personal life will permit me to have more time available for researching and hopefully finding even more quality bets.
2. In theory more bets means more profit but ONLY IF we maintain the same quality of bets. So that is clearly the key here.
It remains to be seen whether reaching around 100-120 picks/year is doable or not. Time will tell I guess.
Italian Serie A2
You may remember I advised a Serie A2 pick a couple of weeks ago. Truth is I have been thinking for a while introducing the italian second division among the competitions we are betting on but the lack of time to thoroughly research the league and being somewhat concerned about the liquidity of the market, I have avoided it so far. The latest developments in the NBA that I mentioned earlier though which may force me to drop it from the competitions we are betting on, means that I could reconsider about the Serie A2.
Now let me tell you right from the start that while the stability and the limits of this market cannot obviously be compared to the NBA, it's still more liquid than what one might have expected, but let's take things from the start.
Opening odds appear just 24 hours before the games usually and while limits are low initially, they go up after a few hours. At Pinnacle on matchday (usually on Sunday) one can place almost 1000 Euros on the handicap bets and over 400 Euros on straight win bets (moneyline) even when odds are quite high like 4.00 or 5.00 for example, so I believe those limits will satisfy almost all of you.
The challenge will be finding a good compromise between placing our bets relatively early when value is usually bigger and easier to find and waiting until the market has enough liquidity to at least put 3 digit bets. Now it's a question of how volatile the market is, as I wouldn't want the odds to crash after a couple of sizable bets and that's what I will be evaluating over the next weeks. If I am convinced by what I see, you may expect some more bets from the Serie A2 very soon and then possibly introduce it full time after the summer with the start of the season 2018-19 depending also on what happens with the NBA.
That's all I guess! If you have any feedback or questions you can contact the admin at any time and I'm sure he will pass them along to me to respond.
Last but not least, a special thank you to all my subscribers! I really appreciate your trust. Those of you who have been with me right from the start have predictably made the most out of the service's profits and that's always the key. I have said it before and I will say it again. Patience and a long term approach are necessary to reap the benefits of any sports betting service and any investment in general for that matter. There is simply no substitute.
The new year is already upon us and there is no point in making any promises other than hard work and quality picks. The rest will take care of itself hopefully! Take care guys and have a great year!
Nothing looks good for a bet this weekend in the remaining schedule of 2017, so it appears Trento's pick was also the last bet of the year.
December was clearly a month of streaks. First, 4 straight winning picks which extended into November marked a 7 game winning streak, followed then by 5 consecutive lost bets and finally one win to put us in a small profit for the month. Nothing spectacular but obviously it's not possible to have double digit profit every month.
Maccabi's game was by far the most disappointing of December not for the manner of the loss but simply because there were really all the prerequisites for a surprise result here. In the end, Panathinaikos played arguably their best game of the season without their MVP Calathes at the helm and undoubtedly their most consistent one, dominating from start to finish a Maccabi team that frankly were nowhere to be found in this match. Annoyingly they went on to comfortably beat high-flying Fenerbahce just two later later and to make things worse, Panathinaikos returned to their usual inconsistent performances right away, barely grabbing victory against a poor Crvena Zvezda team and losing to a depleted by injuries Valencia who were on a 10 game losing streak! But that's sports betting...
Don't forget my 2017 review coming up next week (on Wednesday in all probability) and Happy New Year everybody!