I can't belive myself, but I am actually happy with the results. Perhaps I was too careful and should have posted more, but better safe than sorry. Need to be careful with these kind of matches. Anyway, that's it, my first try beating bookies prematch with friendlies during two months is over and it's all green. Already today starts regular season in Esiliiga B and I am confident to keep this project profitable.
May the luck be with Infonet!
Well this is actually my first time trying to beat preseason friendlies in prematch market. Not very easy, but it's green. The hardest part is to find maximum value. I need to play it rather safe as there is so much in lineups, but if I play +hc on team with odds @7 or something and that team is winning 8:0, you know that I have lost a huge amount of value there and that sucks. So that's it. Too early to make serious conclusions on friendlies. Let's keep it rolling and as always, in a long run profit is inevitable.
Well alrighty then. The new season will start on 6th of January with preseason games, but first I would like to make a small look back to the previous year and then even smaller look to the future. Bear with me.
I have had time to analize my first year in Tipstersplace for quite some time now and all in all I would still rate it as dissapointment. Only the first month of seven total was in red, but it was a big one. I immediately changed the strategy and it took me a while to gain confidence and to get the overall results in green again. So I would say the first month ever in TP ruined the whole year.
I took a good look in different stats and the ones not clearly visible in TP are here for you now with a little comment.
Most units were invested in Meistriliiga, which to be frank is a surprise as I rate it my weakest competition overall. I invested 22 and made 0,77 units profit (ROI: 3,5%) which makes it less than 0,04 units profit per match. And this is so small that it might as well be zero. But it was green nevertheless and at least doesn't bring down the overall margin.
I obviously expect this year to keep it nice and green as well, but not to get anyone's hopes up it would still be around 5% profit. More focus on lower leagues is the plan.
Now what happened in Esiliiga is not acceptable. 15 units invested and 1,82 units loss is not something I would be remotely satisfied with as this is my strongest men’s league. I think the main problem was that it is much harder to beat it without the information about lineups and I didn't feel exactly comfortable with those circumstances. This would still be an issue in this year, but I would be more confident and more experienced now with prematch bets and I expect overall about 15% profit.
One tier down and Esiliiga B was okay. Not great, but okay. Invested 9 units and made 1,33 units profit. Doesn't seem much, but the 14,78% ROI keeps me rather happy. Had couple of very weird results there, so I expect no less than 15% profit in upcoming season.
Women's Meistriliiga was great success. 7 matches, 8 units invested, no misses and 6,81 units profit. The worrying side is that I made more profit alone with Women's league than with all the other competitions combined. This shows that I can't be happy with the overall results at all. This is rather easy league to bet on, so nothing unbelievable. Last seasons 85,13% profit is however a solid result and I don't expect to repeat that. But 40-50% is doable and recommended.
Pretty much a disaster was international competitions. Couldn't hit anything in club level and only made some profit with the national team. 5 units invested and negative 1,43 outcome. Didn't feel comfortable with any of the picks, so it's good to take that info with me and do better. Maybe skip these kind of matches entirely.
Few more words about the future.
-I am gonna lower the betting system and be playing only with 1 or 2 units. And the latter would probably be rather rare occasion. I didn't use higher units even once in previous season, so this is how it's gonna be.
-This year I am gonna start with the preseason games, so there will be another category in my personal statistics as Friendlies. I hope to hit it well and anything under 30% profit would be a dissapointment.
-The main number of bets will be from Bet365, so if you want to follow me and this rather flat stake system AND to make decent profit, make sure there would be no restrictions in you country coming up. In Estonia Bet365 is no longer active and I hear there might be some similar issues in other countries. Sure there will be obvious downers every now and then with the limitations of bet sizes, but I trust you all to know a way around it.
Thank you if you made it through and let's have one happy new year.
Okay, let me just whine for a sec here. Well this was one ridiculous month. Hoped to really hit it off, but ended up break even. At some point I couldn’t help myself but laugh at the outcomes. I mean what is this...? Twice i supported a team which lost 0:5. Twice... in a row. Just borderline insane results. And after that both losers managed to make exceptionaly solid performances.
Then lost an over bet in Kalju – Maardu match because the key midfielder of Maardu lost concious after a collision and they needed to stop the game and call ambulance. Meanwhile Kalju’s physio managed to restore dude’s breathing. After that the game had obviously less spark in it. Glad the guy is okay, but god damn it my luck or what. On the top of all that bet365 was not very generous with lower league games nor Women's league.
Now looking back to these 3 losing bets of previous month, I wouldn’t do anything differently. So on we go. One more month left this season.
Thanks and stay cool.
Now that was a tricky one. It was hard to find good spots prematch so that explains why there were only 5 tips, nothing from lower leagues or women and 4 of them containing FC Infonet, the team I know best. So I am actually pleased with the overall result with previous month, because it is not common for me to make profit with Meistriliiga bets. Next month should give us more options and the feeling is good. We should be fine.
Let me also stress you about the fact that Estonian football goes into winter sleep in November, so October is my last month this year. But I will be returning in January with preseason friendlies.
Thank you and all the best.
Third month in green and July's record of 8-2 gives me great deal of satisfaction. There was a time when I honestly thought I 've lost it and back to my day job it is. I am especially happy about the choices I've made last month with these 10 picks. I would even say that this time there was no luck involved. The first miss with Vändra vs Kalev - the bet was right, the delivery by Kalev was no good which they perfectly proved a week later. The Kalju UEFA match.. well, yeah.. perhaps the only pick I maybe could have been able to avoid. The usual downside of every month are the picks I think about writing, but then don’t and they of course turn out to be easy winners. This time there was only one like that and that gives me a nice boost of extra confidence. I think the best is yet to come and though the first two months flushed the numbers pretty drastically, the overall yield of 20%, even in long term perspective, is nothing unachievable. At least this is my goal.
Thank you and good day.
At least a green month, right? Totally not satisfied. Should have done better. I mean after first three months we are still not in total profit... who would have thought? Good enough Meistriliiga and Esiliiga are back from break. Women’s league will return at the end of this month and I should have plenty of spots to make profit. So it will be. Thank You and good luck!
Well at least it was a green month. The numbers aren’t of course what they should be, but at least I got it going and at the end of the month I got my full confidence back.
Nothing specific to point out about the bets. Most of them were really good and failed and some of them had really strange things happening in game, but still delivered. Still very unpredictable leagues this season, but if choosing carefully then still very profitable.
June is going to be a bit difficult because there are pretty much zero matches to bet on from the 20th of the month, but I want this period to be profitable nevertheless and have faith that the overall stats will be pleasing.
Thank You and good luck!
Well I refuse to admit there is something else behind the losing bets than luck. Obviously this is not the best time to have continous losing streak and I am very much determined to end it this month. Of course it is going to take some extra effort to gain the full confidence, but the feeling is good, so the rsults must follow.
Thank you and good luck.
We have got a bit unlucky with first bets, but that is okay. I have confidence this will turn around. There are lot of good games left in April and we will reach our goal to make profit. I will pick my spots carefully, so the ones I post will be done with extra good feeling.
Thank you and good luck.