Hey guys. It’s about time. The preseason starts on 5th of January, so let me make a quick recap of the previous season and then some affirming words for the future as well.
If I look back to my last season in TP, I must say, I don’t have any regrets or bad feelings for that matter. I had one main goal to achieve and that was to get 20% overall yield and I did it. This is very satisfying, so yeah.. self-five. Of course there were constant minor issues which made me not particularly happy after almost every month, but in general well played.
If in 2016 I made pretty much all of my profit from women’s competitions then 2017 was vice versa. Women’s Meistriliiga looked unbeatable prematch. Tried my luck couple of times and then gave up. Good decision. Ended with -0,66 units in all Women’s competitions.
But everything else went straight to the moon. Here are some numbers with expectations for the upcoming season
Preseason friendlies +16,1% - this was my first try to beat preseason matches using only prematch market and during two months and a rocky start I am pretty much happy with the result. I expect January and February to be in the same range also this year.
Meistriliiga +40,9% - wow.. just wow. This is beyond expectations. I made only 1,5 losing bets / 1 void out of 12 picks and I do not think this is something I can repeat this season. I would be more than happy with 20% yield at the end of 2018.
Esiliiga +33,6% - 19 picks and again, very solid numbers and completely happy with the result as 2016 looked more of a disaster with -12%. I hope to see similar numbers also this season, but I would be okay with 20%.
Esiliiga B +67,5% - Only 8 picks for the entire season, but can’t argue with the fine percentage there. In 2016 I had 9 picks overall and 15% yield. This seems to be the kind of a competition where I like to keep it rather safe and comfortable, so I expect about 30% yield on this season.
All the men’s international competitions were overall in green also, but it was always tough choices. These are my weakest sides and if possible I try to avoid betting on them unless I just need to show some volume.
So to wrap things up it has been a great year and I do not dare to imagine another similar. However I feel more confident than ever, so 25% seems doable and anything under 20% overall would be a small heart attack.
For the ending some good guidelines:
If you sign up for the 1 month plan, DO NOT subscribe in the middle of the month. Always in the beginning. Even if I make the first pick on 15th. I value quality over quantity, so if I have made 5 picks within the first ten days, in theory there could be a 30 day break till the next pick. I always write at least 5 picks per month, but probably not much more.
Also, sign up for the Unit Plans. They make sense and are unfairly cheap. :)
We finished the season with a red month. And it's not that I didn't try hard, but probably could have done better. For example on the last day I had five options from which i posted Sillamäe Paide match, which turned out great, but the other four would have been winners as well. So there is room for improvement.
And not that I didn't try hard, but I am kinda relieved the green marathon ended. This takes huge amount of pressure off of my shoulders and allows me to change strategy for the next season. You will not notice it much, but I can say that I am going to value long term profit more than one month profit. So I can honestly suggest unit plan over one month subscription. That is really good choice. Honestly. :)
Anyone who had negative period with me, don't worry.
I will write whole year review later with numbers and stuff and add thoughts for upcoming season as well.
For now thanks and good luck in other sports. ;)
So hey, October is gonna be the last month of this season. There are one round in November, but not for me.
We are gonna start with international break... again, so very few bets are expected... with which i believe you have come to acceptance already. :)
September was harsh. Few games to bet on, but also managed to miss two-three spots, where we should have made money. So I am once again not happy with the results. Lineups are coming more and more relevant as the end of the season approaches and I am not willing to make hero moves. I also consider to change the strategy for the next season, but that's not in agenda right now.
So, what else? Good luck and let's finish it with dignity. ;)
This is actually not a review. If the month is green, everything is fine. Just want to point out few things. September is gonna be tough. International break is over, but if I look at the schedule, I don't see much good happening. Of course that all changes in time. Due to big leagues playing in weekends, lower estonian leagues and women competitions are not the first priority for bet365. And we are already in red.
Nevertheless, I will fight hard to make every single client money, even if in short term. So I am gonna be extra selective with my picks. For some of you I have about two weeks to turn things around and this is still not the time to panic and I am not gonna push things just because it seems like I have to.
Keep cool and good luck.
June was really lazy. Not so much matches were played and I must admit after kinda okay start of the month I took the foot off the gas and decided not to push it unless something really good comes up. So yeah.. that was it. Not much to talk about. Looking forward for another green month. Meanwhile wishing the linups would get pulished 1.5 hours prior the match. Then again, market would be even more sensitive and you guys could probably miss out value. Yep, everythng is peachy the way it is. Good luck to us and good normal weather. I hate hot weather. Do you hate hot weaher? ... :D That's what you get if there is nothing important to say - the weather channel. Right... okay.
All the best.
Alriiiiight!!! 2,5 months without a losing pick. 14 winners in a row. Alriiiight!!!
Downswing will come. Do not worrie about that! :) No, seriously... it will. Maybe not this year, but it will.
From my personal experience if I look at some tipster who is making an unbelivable run, I prefer not to take his tips at some point. Sure, he is good, but after 10 green picks... well, it has got to end, right? So I get cautious. I usually stay away and wait for the downswing to come, then pass and then hop on again. Or in some cases I deliberately bet against him. Of course if the strategy is to follow every single pick, then I will follow every single pick. So here... DO NOT DO THAT! :)
We are not safe from missed bets. In June we were already very close to lose the streak. The last one was the most fishy. And I admit, I made a wrong choice and I am not strong in international matches. I just thought I didn't have a choice. I wanted to reach 5 picks and this seemed the safest one. Ironically at the same day Esiliiga offered Welco vs Santos match with 4.5 goal line and this was insanely wrong in my eyes. Thought it had perfectly good chance to end 0:0. But I didn't want to push it and prefered to end the month with strong result as it was already. The game ended 0:0.
But this is the strategy I've chosen. I want every month to be in green and this means sometimes not going with obviously good picks.
And this is not only to save my run or save my ROI. This is also because I want every client to leave with money at the end of the month and therefor I do not practice the usual "take all the good picks, in a long run it will be more profitable" style here.
That being said, you are not making my life easier subscribing in the middle of the month. :)
Anyways, we'll see what comes. I will do my very best as always.
Hey, guys. Great month, ah? I was lucky at the beginning of it. Not that i got lucky with the results of course, there is no such thing. :) But bookies were just so kind to give me 5 solid picks, so I was off pressure for the rest of the month and could add a tip only if i was feeling sure enough. That's why it was a great month. This will probably never happen again, so you guys who got your money in with me, hang on, next months will be more nail-biting.
And it will, cause there will be a small break, about a week long, so I think 5-6 picks is probably the best I can do. However as the big leagues have ended, bet365 tend to give more room for Estonian third tier and women's matches in their prematch market.
So all in all, it has been a solid year so far and obviously it doesn't get easier now.
I am fine with the overall result in April, I am not fine with couple of skips I made. I have taken safe line and I shouldn't really change anything as long as it works. Still the bets I have skipped make me wonder if we could be more in profit in a long run if I wouldn't be such a stiff bastard.
Anywho, this was my tenth green month in a row and I am kinda hoping this will continue forever. It will not. ;)
So yeah, these are the issues I hurt my brain with. And if this project is anything to do with luck, we are gonna need it.
This I gotta like, right? Very solid month, no losses. Well, I don't. I am still unsatisfied. I guess that's good. The thing is I could have offered couple of tips more and they also would have been succesful. But I chickened out or didn't feel like super confident. So there is still many miles to improvement. I actually still amaze myself how much there is to learn. From Estonian football, yes, but also from personal point of view, concentratioin, mindset.
April is already in red, so what follows needs to be good. Hop on.