I'll make this a short one. Stuff happens, can't help it. It's gonna be okay ;)
I'll make this a short one. Stuff happens, can't help it. It's gonna be okay ;)
I didn't expect ever to start my month review with such words, but damn.. this was a shitty month. It is not usual for me to have a red month let alone 2 unit red month. It's easy to say now in retrospective that I really shouldn't have touched UEFA matches, which I know is not my strongest thing. But the truth is I didn't have much better spots to bet on either. Estonian leagues just got out of the long pause and it was tricky to find picks. Especially prematch. And it didn't help that everything I touched in livebet got royally screwed as well. So you can say I am in a bit of a downsing for sure.
Anyhows, best way to move on is to just move on. You can quote me on that. ;)
I am excited to make a solid green month out of August, so let's freakin do it.
Thanks for sticking and goog luck.
Hey, guys. It has been a while. Really not liking the whole World Cup thingy in the middle of football season. But it's kinda over, so.. yay. :D
Anywhom, Esiliiga started already today, but I will not make any picks yet. Hard to predict at the moment without lineups. There will be EL and CL matches coming as well, so no worries. I will not rush into anything. Just a little patience and we will be in green. That's the plan anyway. ;)
Have a nice one.
The hell with last month, it was green. Okay? :) Let's talk about next month. So someone in Estonian Football Association thought it was a good idea to not play any upper league matches during the world cup. Just giving almost a month off so guys who get payed for playing football can sit back and watch the game... FOR A MONTH!!! WHAT THE ACTUAL...?? I don't see anyone closing down shops in supermarket to watch the world cup. You watch it when you have the time to watch it ffs. That also means of course that the season will be stretched longer than ususal, which means more games on ice. Nice!
So anyway as this directly messes with my work, I am sadly announcing that I probably won't meet my usual 5 picks in June. I have literally one week to make the picks. I have my options, but last thing I wanna do is rush into something. I just want June to be green. If it would over just one pick, so be it. Thanks for your understanding and have a great World Cup.
Month that started out really nice ended just okay. There were lots of great matches, but the selection by bet365 was rather poor. So that's what we have to deal with right now. Summer should be better. Not that the numbers aren't good. They are. I just want to do better, that's all. :)
So on we go.
Have a nice weather, where ever you are and of course good freakin luck.
Really struggling to say something here. :) Everything goes as it should. Months are green, with occasional unlucky losses. Everything is same. I am getting bored. Let's try 18 winners in a row.
International break is over, so I have more options.
I see bet365 is offering already quite big variety of second league (fourth tier) matches. But I am not gonna pick them for you... yet. Gonna stay with my usual selection.
Soo.. anyway.. I'll try to keep it green and stuff.
I am certainly happy with the results of Estonian preseason. I actually did better than my expectations were set. Rare stuff. Now the real football begins and I hope to keep the green months coming. Thanks for the subscriptions and good luck. We might need it.
We are in the middle of preseason in Estonia. Let's try for at least similar profit in February.
Hey guys. It’s about time. The preseason starts on 5th of January, so let me make a quick recap of the previous season and then some affirming words for the future as well.
If I look back to my last season in TP, I must say, I don’t have any regrets or bad feelings for that matter. I had one main goal to achieve and that was to get 20% overall yield and I did it. This is very satisfying, so yeah.. self-five. Of course there were constant minor issues which made me not particularly happy after almost every month, but in general well played.
If in 2016 I made pretty much all of my profit from women’s competitions then 2017 was vice versa. Women’s Meistriliiga looked unbeatable prematch. Tried my luck couple of times and then gave up. Good decision. Ended with -0,66 units in all Women’s competitions.
But everything else went straight to the moon. Here are some numbers with expectations for the upcoming season
Preseason friendlies +16,1% - this was my first try to beat preseason matches using only prematch market and during two months and a rocky start I am pretty much happy with the result. I expect January and February to be in the same range also this year.
Meistriliiga +40,9% - wow.. just wow. This is beyond expectations. I made only 1,5 losing bets / 1 void out of 12 picks and I do not think this is something I can repeat this season. I would be more than happy with 20% yield at the end of 2018.
Esiliiga +33,6% - 19 picks and again, very solid numbers and completely happy with the result as 2016 looked more of a disaster with -12%. I hope to see similar numbers also this season, but I would be okay with 20%.
Esiliiga B +67,5% - Only 8 picks for the entire season, but can’t argue with the fine percentage there. In 2016 I had 9 picks overall and 15% yield. This seems to be the kind of a competition where I like to keep it rather safe and comfortable, so I expect about 30% yield on this season.
All the men’s international competitions were overall in green also, but it was always tough choices. These are my weakest sides and if possible I try to avoid betting on them unless I just need to show some volume.
So to wrap things up it has been a great year and I do not dare to imagine another similar. However I feel more confident than ever, so 25% seems doable and anything under 20% overall would be a small heart attack.
For the ending some good guidelines:
If you sign up for the 1 month plan, DO NOT subscribe in the middle of the month. Always in the beginning. Even if I make the first pick on 15th. I value quality over quantity, so if I have made 5 picks within the first ten days, in theory there could be a 30 day break till the next pick. I always write at least 5 picks per month, but probably not much more.
Also, sign up for the Unit Plans. They make sense and are unfairly cheap. :)
We finished the season with a red month. And it's not that I didn't try hard, but probably could have done better. For example on the last day I had five options from which i posted Sillamäe Paide match, which turned out great, but the other four would have been winners as well. So there is room for improvement.
And not that I didn't try hard, but I am kinda relieved the green marathon ended. This takes huge amount of pressure off of my shoulders and allows me to change strategy for the next season. You will not notice it much, but I can say that I am going to value long term profit more than one month profit. So I can honestly suggest unit plan over one month subscription. That is really good choice. Honestly. :)
Anyone who had negative period with me, don't worry.
I will write whole year review later with numbers and stuff and add thoughts for upcoming season as well.
For now thanks and good luck in other sports. ;)
So hey, October is gonna be the last month of this season. There are one round in November, but not for me.
We are gonna start with international break... again, so very few bets are expected... with which i believe you have come to acceptance already. :)
September was harsh. Few games to bet on, but also managed to miss two-three spots, where we should have made money. So I am once again not happy with the results. Lineups are coming more and more relevant as the end of the season approaches and I am not willing to make hero moves. I also consider to change the strategy for the next season, but that's not in agenda right now.
So, what else? Good luck and let's finish it with dignity. ;)
This is actually not a review. If the month is green, everything is fine. Just want to point out few things. September is gonna be tough. International break is over, but if I look at the schedule, I don't see much good happening. Of course that all changes in time. Due to big leagues playing in weekends, lower estonian leagues and women competitions are not the first priority for bet365. And we are already in red.
Nevertheless, I will fight hard to make every single client money, even if in short term. So I am gonna be extra selective with my picks. For some of you I have about two weeks to turn things around and this is still not the time to panic and I am not gonna push things just because it seems like I have to.
Keep cool and good luck.
June was really lazy. Not so much matches were played and I must admit after kinda okay start of the month I took the foot off the gas and decided not to push it unless something really good comes up. So yeah.. that was it. Not much to talk about. Looking forward for another green month. Meanwhile wishing the linups would get pulished 1.5 hours prior the match. Then again, market would be even more sensitive and you guys could probably miss out value. Yep, everythng is peachy the way it is. Good luck to us and good normal weather. I hate hot weather. Do you hate hot weaher? ... :D That's what you get if there is nothing important to say - the weather channel. Right... okay.
All the best.
Alriiiiight!!! 2,5 months without a losing pick. 14 winners in a row. Alriiiight!!!
Downswing will come. Do not worrie about that! :) No, seriously... it will. Maybe not this year, but it will.
From my personal experience if I look at some tipster who is making an unbelivable run, I prefer not to take his tips at some point. Sure, he is good, but after 10 green picks... well, it has got to end, right? So I get cautious. I usually stay away and wait for the downswing to come, then pass and then hop on again. Or in some cases I deliberately bet against him. Of course if the strategy is to follow every single pick, then I will follow every single pick. So here... DO NOT DO THAT! :)
We are not safe from missed bets. In June we were already very close to lose the streak. The last one was the most fishy. And I admit, I made a wrong choice and I am not strong in international matches. I just thought I didn't have a choice. I wanted to reach 5 picks and this seemed the safest one. Ironically at the same day Esiliiga offered Welco vs Santos match with 4.5 goal line and this was insanely wrong in my eyes. Thought it had perfectly good chance to end 0:0. But I didn't want to push it and prefered to end the month with strong result as it was already. The game ended 0:0.
But this is the strategy I've chosen. I want every month to be in green and this means sometimes not going with obviously good picks.
And this is not only to save my run or save my ROI. This is also because I want every client to leave with money at the end of the month and therefor I do not practice the usual "take all the good picks, in a long run it will be more profitable" style here.
That being said, you are not making my life easier subscribing in the middle of the month. :)
Anyways, we'll see what comes. I will do my very best as always.
Hey, guys. Great month, ah? I was lucky at the beginning of it. Not that i got lucky with the results of course, there is no such thing. :) But bookies were just so kind to give me 5 solid picks, so I was off pressure for the rest of the month and could add a tip only if i was feeling sure enough. That's why it was a great month. This will probably never happen again, so you guys who got your money in with me, hang on, next months will be more nail-biting.
And it will, cause there will be a small break, about a week long, so I think 5-6 picks is probably the best I can do. However as the big leagues have ended, bet365 tend to give more room for Estonian third tier and women's matches in their prematch market.
So all in all, it has been a solid year so far and obviously it doesn't get easier now.
I am fine with the overall result in April, I am not fine with couple of skips I made. I have taken safe line and I shouldn't really change anything as long as it works. Still the bets I have skipped make me wonder if we could be more in profit in a long run if I wouldn't be such a stiff bastard.
Anywho, this was my tenth green month in a row and I am kinda hoping this will continue forever. It will not. ;)
So yeah, these are the issues I hurt my brain with. And if this project is anything to do with luck, we are gonna need it.
This I gotta like, right? Very solid month, no losses. Well, I don't. I am still unsatisfied. I guess that's good. The thing is I could have offered couple of tips more and they also would have been succesful. But I chickened out or didn't feel like super confident. So there is still many miles to improvement. I actually still amaze myself how much there is to learn. From Estonian football, yes, but also from personal point of view, concentratioin, mindset.
April is already in red, so what follows needs to be good. Hop on.
Everything is peachy. :)
Good luck and stuff.
I can't belive myself, but I am actually happy with the results. Perhaps I was too careful and should have posted more, but better safe than sorry. Need to be careful with these kind of matches. Anyway, that's it, my first try beating bookies prematch with friendlies during two months is over and it's all green. Already today starts regular season in Esiliiga B and I am confident to keep this project profitable.
May the luck be with Infonet!
Well this is actually my first time trying to beat preseason friendlies in prematch market. Not very easy, but it's green. The hardest part is to find maximum value. I need to play it rather safe as there is so much in lineups, but if I play +hc on team with odds @7 or something and that team is winning 8:0, you know that I have lost a huge amount of value there and that sucks. So that's it. Too early to make serious conclusions on friendlies. Let's keep it rolling and as always, in a long run profit is inevitable.
Well alrighty then. The new season will start on 6th of January with preseason games, but first I would like to make a small look back to the previous year and then even smaller look to the future. Bear with me.
I have had time to analize my first year in Tipstersplace for quite some time now and all in all I would still rate it as dissapointment. Only the first month of seven total was in red, but it was a big one. I immediately changed the strategy and it took me a while to gain confidence and to get the overall results in green again. So I would say the first month ever in TP ruined the whole year.
I took a good look in different stats and the ones not clearly visible in TP are here for you now with a little comment.
Most units were invested in Meistriliiga, which to be frank is a surprise as I rate it my weakest competition overall. I invested 22 and made 0,77 units profit (ROI: 3,5%) which makes it less than 0,04 units profit per match. And this is so small that it might as well be zero. But it was green nevertheless and at least doesn't bring down the overall margin.
I obviously expect this year to keep it nice and green as well, but not to get anyone's hopes up it would still be around 5% profit. More focus on lower leagues is the plan.
Now what happened in Esiliiga is not acceptable. 15 units invested and 1,82 units loss is not something I would be remotely satisfied with as this is my strongest men’s league. I think the main problem was that it is much harder to beat it without the information about lineups and I didn't feel exactly comfortable with those circumstances. This would still be an issue in this year, but I would be more confident and more experienced now with prematch bets and I expect overall about 15% profit.
One tier down and Esiliiga B was okay. Not great, but okay. Invested 9 units and made 1,33 units profit. Doesn't seem much, but the 14,78% ROI keeps me rather happy. Had couple of very weird results there, so I expect no less than 15% profit in upcoming season.
Women's Meistriliiga was great success. 7 matches, 8 units invested, no misses and 6,81 units profit. The worrying side is that I made more profit alone with Women's league than with all the other competitions combined. This shows that I can't be happy with the overall results at all. This is rather easy league to bet on, so nothing unbelievable. Last seasons 85,13% profit is however a solid result and I don't expect to repeat that. But 40-50% is doable and recommended.
Pretty much a disaster was international competitions. Couldn't hit anything in club level and only made some profit with the national team. 5 units invested and negative 1,43 outcome. Didn't feel comfortable with any of the picks, so it's good to take that info with me and do better. Maybe skip these kind of matches entirely.
Few more words about the future.
-I am gonna lower the betting system and be playing only with 1 or 2 units. And the latter would probably be rather rare occasion. I didn't use higher units even once in previous season, so this is how it's gonna be.
-This year I am gonna start with the preseason games, so there will be another category in my personal statistics as Friendlies. I hope to hit it well and anything under 30% profit would be a dissapointment.
-The main number of bets will be from Bet365, so if you want to follow me and this rather flat stake system AND to make decent profit, make sure there would be no restrictions in you country coming up. In Estonia Bet365 is no longer active and I hear there might be some similar issues in other countries. Sure there will be obvious downers every now and then with the limitations of bet sizes, but I trust you all to know a way around it.
Thank you if you made it through and let's have one happy new year.
Okay, let me just whine for a sec here. Well this was one ridiculous month. Hoped to really hit it off, but ended up break even. At some point I couldn’t help myself but laugh at the outcomes. I mean what is this...? Twice i supported a team which lost 0:5. Twice... in a row. Just borderline insane results. And after that both losers managed to make exceptionaly solid performances.
Then lost an over bet in Kalju – Maardu match because the key midfielder of Maardu lost concious after a collision and they needed to stop the game and call ambulance. Meanwhile Kalju’s physio managed to restore dude’s breathing. After that the game had obviously less spark in it. Glad the guy is okay, but god damn it my luck or what. On the top of all that bet365 was not very generous with lower league games nor Women's league.
Now looking back to these 3 losing bets of previous month, I wouldn’t do anything differently. So on we go. One more month left this season.
Thanks and stay cool.
Now that was a tricky one. It was hard to find good spots prematch so that explains why there were only 5 tips, nothing from lower leagues or women and 4 of them containing FC Infonet, the team I know best. So I am actually pleased with the overall result with previous month, because it is not common for me to make profit with Meistriliiga bets. Next month should give us more options and the feeling is good. We should be fine.
Let me also stress you about the fact that Estonian football goes into winter sleep in November, so October is my last month this year. But I will be returning in January with preseason friendlies.
Thank you and all the best.
Third month in green and July's record of 8-2 gives me great deal of satisfaction. There was a time when I honestly thought I 've lost it and back to my day job it is. I am especially happy about the choices I've made last month with these 10 picks. I would even say that this time there was no luck involved. The first miss with Vändra vs Kalev - the bet was right, the delivery by Kalev was no good which they perfectly proved a week later. The Kalju UEFA match.. well, yeah.. perhaps the only pick I maybe could have been able to avoid. The usual downside of every month are the picks I think about writing, but then don’t and they of course turn out to be easy winners. This time there was only one like that and that gives me a nice boost of extra confidence. I think the best is yet to come and though the first two months flushed the numbers pretty drastically, the overall yield of 20%, even in long term perspective, is nothing unachievable. At least this is my goal.
Thank you and good day.
At least a green month, right? Totally not satisfied. Should have done better. I mean after first three months we are still not in total profit... who would have thought? Good enough Meistriliiga and Esiliiga are back from break. Women’s league will return at the end of this month and I should have plenty of spots to make profit. So it will be. Thank You and good luck!
Well at least it was a green month. The numbers aren’t of course what they should be, but at least I got it going and at the end of the month I got my full confidence back.
Nothing specific to point out about the bets. Most of them were really good and failed and some of them had really strange things happening in game, but still delivered. Still very unpredictable leagues this season, but if choosing carefully then still very profitable.
June is going to be a bit difficult because there are pretty much zero matches to bet on from the 20th of the month, but I want this period to be profitable nevertheless and have faith that the overall stats will be pleasing.
Thank You and good luck!
Well I refuse to admit there is something else behind the losing bets than luck. Obviously this is not the best time to have continous losing streak and I am very much determined to end it this month. Of course it is going to take some extra effort to gain the full confidence, but the feeling is good, so the rsults must follow.
Thank you and good luck.
We have got a bit unlucky with first bets, but that is okay. I have confidence this will turn around. There are lot of good games left in April and we will reach our goal to make profit. I will pick my spots carefully, so the ones I post will be done with extra good feeling.
Thank you and good luck.
Surely there is a reason why I am part of this great place. So, there will be profit!
I need to stress you that there will be no tips before April due to international break.
Also, I am coming from a relatively major downswing, so this is good, right? Perfect time for a heater.
Let's hit it!