Well, it was bound to happen sooner or later. Our first negative month of 2017 and we suffered a small setback with 5 units lost. To be honest the frustrating thing was actually not the loss itself rather than a lack of betting opportunities these past couple of months. I realize this must have been even more frustrating for you guys but unfortunately there are some periods when there is simply no value at all in the schedule, so the best option is simply to stay put and remain patient.
One blatant example of this was Avellino-Venezia 3 days ago for the italian playoffs (May 30th). If you look back at the 8th of March it was coincidentally the same match I advised at 3.76 (for Venezia's win). Opening odds for the May 30th game instead were 2.42(!) at Pinnacle for the visitors (Venezia), barely reaching 3.03 by the time the game started. To make things even worse is that Avellino are actually in pretty good shape right now while back in March they were struggling and also missing a key player in Cusin! I think the numbers speak for themselves. The final result of these two games is obviously irrelevant as what I'm trying to point out here is simply the huge difference in value for Venezia's win between these two matches.
As far as May's picks are concerned we were quite unlucky with both our first 2 picks (Avellino's and Reggiana's advised wins), as our teams were leading until late in the game, only to suffer a furious rally from their opponents in the last minutes. As for the Real Madrid-CSKA game I believe the final result is indicative of Real's painful performance, so absolutely no objections there.
Considering June will be very light in games with only the semifinals and finals remaining in all the leagues we are betting on, now I think is a good opportunity to inform you of the schedule up ahead.
July and August is the summer break for the leagues and basketball in general so there is no activity. At August 31th though begins the Eurobasket 2017 which runs until September 17th and we will certainly get involved. Following the Eurobasket there will be another small window of inactivity until the first days of October when all of the leagues restart after the summer break and from that period on, we will go non-stop until the summer of 2018.
Plenty of time to talk about the new season though. Let's see if we can finish June with some profit. Take care!
It has been a quiet and unremarkable April with just over one unit of profit so nothing to write home about really. It was also a pretty bad month in terms of value opportunities across the leagues we are betting on and as a result there were just 5 bets, but it's always better to be safe than sorry.
Our last bet on Brindisi was actually the one I expected to make a difference in the end but the indifference of the visitors was simply shocking to see despite being the only team with a strong motivation for the game. In fact their lax attitude was criticized afterwards by coach Sacchetti and the Brindisi players responded last week with a strong performance and clear victory against Capo d'Orlando to move closer to a playoff spot, but they ruined our bet earlier.
Hopefully May will present more opportunities as the leagues will soon enter or have already entered the playoffs phase. Take care guys!
At the risk of stating the obvious, March has been a great month for us with 16 units of profit and an ideal way to end the first quarter of 2017 showing a steady increase of our bankroll each month. Now it's not the time to get carried away though. Remember this is a marathon not a sprint and inevitably we will face adversities down the road. The important thing is maintain the same approach with a few selective bets with great value and we make our recap only at the end of the year.
Looking back at the start of the month we began with two losing bets both on the handicap market only to turn things around nicely with 7 straight winners with average odds of 3.22 per bet. To be honest I was a little annoyed with Reggiana's losing game against Cantu where the hosts have simply broken most of their seasonal records, all in this single game! Points scored, 3 pointers made, highest percentage on 3 pointers, assists and turnovers committed. Incredible stuff really!Truth be told, Reggiana were simply atrocious especially on the second half and I may have misjudged Recalcati's impact to Cantu but still it was an almost miraculous game for them. As for our last bet on Pesaro (odds at 7.00) playing at Trento, it actually proved a good choice despite the result. In fact the game was really close throughout it's duration and Pesaro came within 2 points in the final seconds with a chance to at least tie the game but a missed defensive rebound condemned them in the end. A pity, considering how competitive they have been. I'm gonna leave it at that though, as it makes no sense complaining after a month like this!
It looks like we will have no bets for the weekend as the odds are really spot on and hold no value. There is only a game in Italy tomorrow for which I may reconsider provided the odds rise up a little to make our involvement worthwhile. In that case I will let you know in advance obviously.
I wish you all a good month and let's see if we can keep the momentum going in April.
A pretty good month for us with almost 8 units of profit made. A February that started bad but finished really strong although the second part of the month was not as busy as the first one. In fact I considered several matches during the last week but none them really convinced me to bet on and in the end it was the wiser move. No sense risking our money on dubious selections when the odds are not that good.
Remember guys that we as bettors have a powerful but often overlooked weapon. We are the only ones who decide when to place a bet and we should take a chance only when all of our pre-established criteria are met. No point making compromises especially concerning the odds. Allow me an analogy here. A successful bettor can be compared to a sniper. He should have the exact same qualities. Knowledge of his environment, patience, composure, absolute focus and he simply takes the shot (or bet) when the probabilities of hitting the target (or winning the bet) are in his favour!
As far as February’s bets are concerned, we got lucky to nail Reggiana and Sassari in matches that were decided in the last seconds but were really unfortunate with Milano’s match in Turkey. They were leading for 38 minutes including a 20 point difference during the second quarter but they simply fell apart in the last minutes losing their composure and making one bad decision after another! Still it was the right call taking this bet regardless of the result as the odds (5.31) were simply ridiculous considering how wildly inconsistent and unpredictable Efes Anadolu have been throughout the season.
Have a great month guys! I’ll talk to you soon…
A month in green is always welcome although those 4+ units won could have been almost 10 had Szolnoki not lost a game they had in their pocket. Up 3 points with just 3 seconds left, they only had to foul an opponent and send him to the free throw line. Instead they chose to rely on their defense only to suffer a 3-pointer that sent the game to overtime where subsequently Charleroi prevailed. The only regret I have is not backing Caserta's win too (against Reggiana) instead of just the handicap but obviously it's easy drawing conclusions afterwards.
On a side note I have noticed a slight increase so far in the picks for 2016/17 season. In fact there have been 50 picks in these past 4 months and that is a trend I hope continues for the rest of 2017. More is not necessarily better but a wider selection of matches means more chances to recover after a few unfortunate picks. In any case my selection process remains the same regardless of the number of games and you can rest assured there is good value in all of the posted picks.
Take care guys!
Hello guys! After almost a year in the training site proving myself it's great to be finally on board. As my first blog post I would like to clarify a few things in order for you to know what to expect of me and to better judge if this service is suitable for you. So let's get started!
As you might have noticed this is a low workload service which means that those of you having very little time to spare should have no problem following me. On average you should expect around 10 picks/month although that may vary depending on more or less favourable schedule, odds and density of fixtures. I always try to post my picks at least a few hours in advance or even the day before the matches when possible although that is determined by odds movement obviously. I continuously monitor the market as for example an outsider priced at 3.00 that I judged not a worthy bet, may become one if the odds rise at 3.60! Also I always try to choose as my main bookmakers Pinnacle and BET365 because of their reliability and high limits and I completely avoid the less reputable ones even if they may have higher odds sometimes. So the majority of the odds suggested will derive from those two bookies. Finally, the service runs typically from October to the end of May-start of June while in the remaining months in-between I may be active if there is a big international tournament like the Eurobasket. If that is the case I will obviously let you know in time.
If you decide to subscribe I would highly recommend two things:
1) Set aside a Betting Bank just for this service and stick to my stakes which are based on a 100 units bankroll. Obviously you adjust accordingly to the size of your own betting bank. Independently of it's size though everyone should have one. Betting at least for me is a serious investment and should be done with the utmost professionalism. A betting bank and a suitable money management system will limit drastically the chance of losing your starting capital while ensuring a long term profit.
2) Patience! Like with any other form of investment you should always adopt a long term outlook and mindset. I reckon at least a betting season is required for any unfortunate circumstances, bad luck and negative streaks to even themselves out with more favorable periods. All of us would want smooth sailing with our bets meaning a regular, constant flow of profit but the truth is that sports betting can be really unpredictable especially when dealing with big odds. As long as you have done your homework though and you are certain of the long term profitability of your betting system or the tipster(s) you follow, patience will reward you in the end. Have no doubt!
But enough talking for now. Time to get to business! I'll talk to you soon!